03/03/2025
Stay Safe 🙏🏻❤️
⚠️🌀 CYCLONE ALFRED - NSW IMPACTS
-
- 2:19PM, Sunday 2nd March
Tropical Cyclone Alfred is now considered a high chance to push onto the southeast Queensland and northeast NSW coast this week as a category 1 or 2 strength system, likely making landfall on Thursday, 6th March.
The current track puts landfall most likely close to Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast, with a high chance it will occur between K’gari (formerly Fraser Island) in Qld and Evans Head in NSW. There is also an outside chance it moves further north near Bundaberg or runs down south along the NSW coast.
Once it makes landfall, it is expected to push inland and south towards the NSW Northern Tablelands, Slopes and Plains. It may impact locations further south as it dissipates next week.
⚠️💨 WIND IMPACTS
Conditions for intensification will improve for Tropical Cyclone Alfred as it nears the coast, particularly with the very warm water sitting in the East Australian Current (EAC) just offshore. Most likely, Alfred will make landfall as a category 1 or 2 system, packing damaging to destructive winds of 70-110km/h sustained, gusting up to 100-160km/h along the coast and adjacent inland.
⚠️🌧️ RAINFALL IMPACTS
Regardless of the wind strength of Tropical Cyclone Alfred, one of its most dangerous components will be the rainfall and flooding it brings across southeast Qld and northeast NSW.
While models do vary significantly where the heaviest rain will fall, they are quite consistent on the amounts. Across the entire region, and as far south as Sydney and Wollongong, falls of 50-100mm are forecast.
In the areas most directly impacted, widespread falls of 200-400mm are expected between Thursday and Saturday, with isolated totals of 600-1200mm. Some of this rain will fall in short periods of time, making flash-flooding a high risk. The most exposed locations could see rainfall rates of 100-250mm falling in a six-hour period.
Of particular note, areas in the Greater Lismore region and possibly the Dorrigo region are areas known to see exceptionally heavy rainfall like those that are forecast and could see the upper end of forecast rainfall.
Rainfall will be heaviest in the southeast quadrant of the system, where the most moisture, convection, and highest winds will also be. These rainfall rates forecast are heavy enough to lead to widespread major flooding across a number of river catchments. River levels could also near some of the most historic flood levels in the region.
⚠️🌊 STORM SURGE
The final major impact of Tropical Cyclone Alfred will be the waves and tides. Due to the systems strength on its southeast side, the Byron Bay area is most likely to bear the brunt of the waves.
Significant wave heights of 7-8.5m are forecast, with maximum wave heights upwards of 14-17m possible. This puts it on par with the highest waves recorded off the NSW coast; 17.7m near Eden during the June 2016 East Coast Low. In addition to the waves, a storm surge is possible and will increase the astronomical tide level as it arrives. Beach erosion is likely to be very significant across the coast, with some localised coastal inundation also possible.
We will continue to provide updates as Cyclone Alfred progresses. If you require emergency help, call the NSW SES on 132 500 and if life-threatening, call 000.
▪️View and be alerted severe weather, flooding and more by downloading the NSW Incident Alerts App. Try for free today; https://apple.co/39Y5tW2
▪️Brought to you by www.gio.com.au
▪️Article: www.weatherzone.com.au Weatherzone
