11/15/2024
For all my Floridian Snowbirds..... ☀️ this is encouraging..... still on watch..... stay safe Central America, Honduras and Yucatan Peninsula. 🙏
: Tropical Storm has formed in the Caribbean as of Thursday afternoon, 18th storm of the 2024 Atlantic Season. Models have shifted more west into the Yucatcan Peninsula compared to two days ago, which leads to a much different (more positive) forecast for the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. Here are my thoughts as of Thursday:
1. Sara is a classic example of constantly staying updated with the forecast because models can and do change. Over the past 2 days, they have shifted more south and west...spending more time over Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula instead of the very warm waters of the Caribbean. The shift in models is because of stronger high pressure over southern Florida right now than models previously thought. That is a positive trend down the road for Florida.
2. What is better news for the United States, is not better news for Central America. The slow-moving storm will produce 20 - 40" of rain in Honduras with life-threatening flash flooding over the next several days.
3. No guarantees Sara survives crossing the Yucatan Peninsula. The official forecast calls for a Tropical Depression to head into the Gulf of Mexico Monday night into Tuesday. Gradual re-intensification is possible, but hurricane potential has lowered for both the Gulf and Florida with models no longer indicating a strong or powerful storm. That's because of less energy in the Gulf and eventual increasing wind shear. Model majority is for a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm approaching Florida *IF* it's still a tropical system by that point.
4. Even though this would be a better outcome, we still would see some impacts including better rain chances, breezy / windy weather and a potential window of time for severe weather. Overall, pretty manageable at this point.
5. I'll keep you updated 24/7 with just the facts without the hype on WINK News. Thanks everyone!
- Matt Devitt WINK Weather