30/06/2021
房产真的供过于求 / oversupply吗？
Is it really ‘Oversupply’ in Real Estate Market?
看看以下数字吧:
所有房产 *酒店，工厂，住宅，商业等等 **2019
现有 / 建好：6,842,505
来着 / 建着：636,235
计划着 *得到Building Plan Approval：652,186
总计：（8,130,926）单位
除去所有非住宅类型房产 *办公楼，酒店，商场，店铺等等
住宅房产总额：: （7,388,281）单位 *SOHO，服务式公寓等等
马来西亚总人口：3千2百68万
工作人口：1千5百79万 *还没包括一部分有进行买卖房产的老年人士，大约总人口7%
工作人口 ：房产供应 比例 ~ 2 ：1 （已经把还未完成的项目加进去了，如果不加，已2019年度做对比，将会减少6,176,439单位，比例接近 3 ：2，简单来说，每3人抢2个单位，所以是供不应求，而不是供过于求）
但是有很多新闻说房产oversupply / overhang等等，所以答案是什么？我们先来看看一些你必须知道的概念。
先说什么是overhang：当现有需求《严重低于》现有供应，导致现有的供应不能健康地被消化，并严重导致发展商在现有供应大量不被消化的情况下而不敢推出新项目，导致市场新型项目《急剧减少》，那么才是overhang，而现有阶段，基本可以解释为：供应与需求的不匹配（mismatch）。
*卖不出的单位称之为未售出单位（unsold units）。
还有，没有一个经济体在任何一段时间有完美的100%房产售出率，而有很多经济因素例如通膨，失业率，包括房产售出率也必须不能有100%，这个可以在下个课题谈。
那为什么会说是供应与需求不匹配呢？
其实从下面的图可以看到未出售单位最大的占比价位是500千以上的单位，原因非常简单，马来西亚人民平均收入大约RM 5,800左右，以30%作为房产月供为健康标准的话，大约RM 1,740，以35年工期 + 3.1%利息 + 90%贷款，可以大概买到RM 400,000 – RM 450,000的房子，但是更多的房产基本都是在500千以上，而不是处在大部分人可负担的价位，所以导致很多所谓的未出售单位，其中基本都是处在RM 500,000 – RM 1,000,000的价位，当然出售速度也要取决于很多因素，例如地点、地方平均收入、地方平均年龄等等。
其实看得出在这期间，政府也采取相关的措施去解决这问题，例如HOC、RM 600,000 – RM 1,000,000 之间可以获取超过70%贷款（第三间房产或以上的屋主）、暂停RM 1,000,000高级房产项目发展批准等等。那我个人觉得是几个关键，原因如下：
1. 估价系统
- 现有估价系统（valuation）主要透过‘’比较算法 / comparison method‘’，特别是住宅类型房产，使用附近类似的单位做比较，再做一些调整得到最终价位。但是这其中有一个缺陷，当然也要取决于哪个买卖市场（新盘、二手、竞标）。而这缺陷是即使经过可行性报告 / feasibility study（这报告里面有目标买家的均收入和年龄等数据做价位参考，不过基本上都会在这里有向上调动，因为发展商会要求其中的估价师调高来获取更高的价位，主要是配合目标盈利额度，还有因为要把给予买家配套的钱从这调高的价位里面扣，进而得到原先目标盈利），还是较少迎合真正需求，所以基本导致少数新项目会在短期内被快速消化，因为已经不符合原本目标买家的购买能力与需求等等。这其中如果可以有一个相对应的估价系统来与其劣势取到平衡，那就可以得到一个更精准的价位来推出市场，简单来说是一个互补的系统。
2. 现代人的财务管理
- 这年头有一个说法，叫精致学，也有人叫精致穷，主要指那些花钱速度接近甚至超越赚钱速度的人们，主要体现在90后00后，因为《你只活一次》、《要活得漂亮》等原因成为月光族，或乱花钱，并没有投资和管理金钱意识，导致在想借贷款的时候才发现累积下来的钱并不多，和本身的信贷分数也不及格。看到这里的朋友记得务必学会投资和管理金钱，因为你会在接下来的路程顺利很多。
3. 发展商对地方需求的疏忽
- 更多的高级产业未售出，其实也因为发展商过于追求盈利，转至国外客户市场，因为国外客户对马来西亚市场没有很大了解，而且其实在他们眼里，马来西亚市场真的会便宜很多！所以更多的发展商看上这块蛋糕而忽略了本地人的需求，所以看到很多高级房产单位未售出，就是这原因。举个例子，TRX & BBCC住宅单位基本上超过一半多都是国外客户，而在这个疫情，发展商都基本只能找本地客户来消化未售出单位，然后才遇到关键，就是销量不好，因为这些产品本来就不是朝着本地客户群建的。
所以不难看出，问题的根源若没解决，那类似的问题还会一直出现，当然在每一次的经济债务循环会使各个金融产品升值或贬值，房产也不例外。个人相信，如果可以优化上述关键，那整个房产体系会更融洽和健康，而关键在于需要一个可以整合房产体系的系统让整个生态链循环更顺畅和有效，就能解决很多问题，例如由资讯差距或时间差距造成的问题（不同数据机构收集并发行不同的数据导致数据差出现等等）。
总结，基本上本地市场还不是处于供过于求，而是供应需求不匹配造成。
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Let’s check out figures below:
All types of properties supply: (Hotels, Residential, Malls, etc.) **2019
Existing / Completed : 6,842,505
Incoming / Under Construction : 636,235
Planned *Building Plan Approved : 652,186
Total : 8,130,926 Units
Deduct non-residential properties *offices, hotels, malls, shops, etc.
Residential units total : 7,388,281 Units (including SOHO, Service Apartment, etc.)
Malaysia Total Population : 32.68 Million
Working Population : 15.79 Million *not including golden age generation that are able to transact properties for all sort of purposes, which is roughly 7% of total population
Working Population : Properties Supply ~ 2 : 1 (inclusive of incoming & planned supply), if deduct these, then supply would be reduced by 6,176,439 Units, which makes the ratio more to 3 : 2, simple to say, 3 people compete for 2 properties, so it’s safe to say its not oversupply.
But there’s a lot of news saying oversupply etc. so what is the reason behind these? Let’s check out few concepts that you need to know before that.
First of all, overhang means that when the existing supply for properties exceed the existing demand to a point where developers would not be able to launch new projects due to deeply undigested existing supply that would make it impossible for new supply to make it into the market. For current situation, we can actually consider it as mismatch of demand & supply.
*Leftover units = Unsold units
Also, there’s no economy that has 100% property sold out rate at any given time, same goes to a lot of economic factors such as inflation, unemployment, etc. this can be further discuss in another topic.
But why there is mismatch of demand & supply?
While if we look at photos below, we can see that most of the unsold units are in the price range of RM 500k & above. Let’s take the median income of Malaysians is roughly RM 5,800, if we take 30% of the income to meet the healthy monthly commitment range for mortgage loan as individual, which is roughly RM 1,740. Say the loan terms are 35 years tenure + 3.1% Interest rate + 90% loan margin, with these conditions, a person can purchase a property in the price range of RM 400k to RM 450k. But since most of the properties out there are in the price range of more than RM 500k, that’s why we have lots of unsold units, of course we need to take in other considerations as well such as median income, demography of locality, etc.
In fact, due to this issue, our government has actually implemented few actions to counter this, such as introduction of HOC, 70% & above LTV for 3rd house buyers onwards, freeze on development approval for high end units. For me, I think it comes down to few issues as below:
1. Valuation system.
- The current valuation system for residential property, would be mostly based on comparison method, which used similar property in / nearby the subject area to finalise the value of the property. This for me has one weakness, though we need to be more precise on which transaction market we are looking at (new project, subsale, auction), in which the feasibility study (inclusive of detailed report on several criteria such as demography of locality & median income etc., but most of the time if not all, the price would be adjusted to higher range because developer simply want to maintain their profit margin by asking valuers to do so, also to assist customers to get all the freebies which include legal fees etc by marking up the price beforehand.) by developers, which makes the product not matching the actual demand, thus making it harder for the product to be fully digested. If we can make one system that can balanced out the weak point of current system, then we can have better matching system to provide to the property market.
2. Current generation Financial Management
- Nowadays we have one saying in Chinese, ‘Delicate Lifestyle’, which means that the current generation would more prefer to spend for lavish lifestyle, due to their believe that YOLO (You Only Live Once) & similar believes. This makes their savings & financial management very weak, thus blaming on insufficient income etc. which actually most of the time is not the root of cause. Also, for some, they don’t have the mindset of managing their credit well, such as keeping the payment for loans in discipline manner, which makes them hard to get the loan when they are ready to buy property for their next stage of life for instance. Remember to keep your credit scoring balance friends!
3. Negligence of Developers to local market
- A lot of unsold units happens also due to the developers’ change of target market. For cash rich developers, they seek more opportunities to target overseas clients, that are willing to purchase high end units here in Malaysia for certain reasons, such as much cheaper price properties compared to their own countries with high end features, while most of them didn’t really know about the market in Malaysia as real estate is quite localize, which makes them unaware of which property is the better option for them, though most of the time it’s because the 1st reason. Since the profit margin for high end properties are very high, they are seeking for these types of properties to sell to hit higher profit target, which in turn makes them negligence to the local market, which is one of the main reason of above-average unsold units in Malaysia, though not so serious yet. For instance, TRX Residences & BBCC Lucentia Residence have most of their buyers from overseas, particularly from Hong Kong, China, Japan & Australia, but during this pandemic, developers finding it hard for them to purchase in Malaysia, which make them to find the other way of selling remaining units – the locals, which is hard since the original target market is already not the locals, thus having unsold units mostly in this price range.
So it’s not hard to know why there are quite a number of unsold units here in the market, & if the root causes still cannot be solved, the issue will remains, though the value of all financial assets will rise & fall at different economic stages, same goes to real estate, and if we can clear the above issue, I believe the real estate market will be more viable & healthy in a sense. The key here is to systemize the whole real estate ecosystem to reduce the issues arise most of the time from the information gap & timing gap, such as the data provided is different by different relevant authority for the same topic, which makes the data analysis slight away from the truth.
Conclusion: There is no overhang, it’s only unsold units due to mismatch of demand & supply.
