09/07/2026
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OCR Rise Unlikely to Deliver Another Mortgage Shock for Most Homeowners...
Homeowners worried that the Reserve Bank's latest Official Cash Rate (OCR) increase will send mortgage repayments soaring may find much of the impact has already been priced into home loan rates.
The Reserve Bank of NZ today lifted the OCR by 25 basis points to 2.5 percent, its first increase since April 2023, when the cash rate reached 5.25 percent as policymakers battled inflation running at 7 percent.
While today's decision raises banks' funding costs, economists say mortgage rates have already climbed over the past six months as financial markets anticipated the move.
The country's major banks and independent economists had been divided over whether the Reserve Bank would act after leaving the OCR unchanged at 2.25 percent in May. Markets, however, continued to price in a strong likelihood of a rate increase.
Among those forecasting a hike were ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner and BNZ chief economist Stephen Toplis. Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr and ASB economists had expected the Reserve Bank to remain on hold.
ASB argued there was insufficient evidence of a sustained economic recovery to justify another increase.
In its monetary policy statement, the Reserve Bank said short-term mortgage rates had continued to rise since May, while longer-term fixed rates had eased.
"More recent declines in wholesale rates have widened spreads between mortgage and wholesale rates, reducing pressure for further increases in mortgage rates at some terms," the Monetary Policy Committee said.
That suggests many borrowers coming off fixed-rate loans may not face significantly higher interest rates than those already available.
Borrowers on floating or variable-rate mortgages will feel the impact first, with higher repayments likely to take effect almost immediately. Most homeowners, however, are on fixed-rate loans and will not be affected until their mortgages are due for refixing.
The committee said New Zealand's economic recovery had been gaining momentum before the Middle East conflict disrupted activity through higher oil prices during the June quarter.
It expects growth to resume in the September quarter as those effects fade and business and consumer confidence improve.
Looking further ahead, the Reserve Bank said returning inflation to its 2 percent target midpoint would strengthen household purchasing power and support a more durable recovery in economic growth and employment.
For the housing market, today's OCR increase is unlikely to be a major turning point. With much of the move already reflected in mortgage pricing, attention will now shift to whether interest rates stabilise and buyer confidence continues to improve through the second half of the year.
