29/01/2026
Want to share a interesting video I recently saw circulating around, and I fully agree with what was mentioned in it!
WILL IT FLASH OR WILL IT CRASH URA | Q4 2025 Flash Estimates
Video link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9J6JIBfvjw
1) Article TLDR
โขโ โ Market Slowdown: Q4 2025 saw a moderated 0.7% price increase, with the full year 2025 climbing only 3.4%, the slowest pace since 2020.
โขโ โ GFA Harmonization Impact: While PSF prices rose, quantums were kept in check due to GFA harmonization policies improving layout efficiency,. This resulted in "today's affordability but back to yesterday's pricing" (e.g., Emerald @ Katong launching at similar quantums to Tembusu Grand despite being 1.5 years newer)
โขโ โ Sales Volume: Q4 transactions dipped 27.1%, but full-year new home sales reached a 4-year high (approx. 10,700 units) due to lower interest rates and eased stress tests increasing affordability,,.
2) Sharp Divergence
โขโ โ Landed Surge: Landed property prices rose by 3.5% in Q4, the strongest growth in two years.
โขโ โ Drivers: The surge is driven by finite supply, firm asking prices, and upgraders who sold their resale homes earlier in the year capitalising on gains to move into the landed segment,.
3) CCR Correction
โขโ โ Price Drop: CCR prices fell by 3.2% in Q4, largely attributed to the realistic launch pricing of Skye at Holland.
โขโ โ Statistical Skew: Many new "central" developments (e.g., Zion Grand, Promenade Peak) are classified as RCR, boosting RCR stats (+0.7%) rather than supporting CCR figures,.
โขโ โ Efficiency Shift: Newer central projects feature efficient layouts without wasted space (bay windows/planters), making them more attractive price-wise compared to older resale units in areas like River Valley,.
4) Public Housing
โขโ โ Soft Landing: HDB resale price growth hit 0% in Q4 2025, marking a full-year moderation to 2.9%.
โขโ โ Supply Tsunami: A massive wave of roughly 13,500 to 13,840 flats will hit their MOP in 2026 (a 69% increase), which is expected to moderate resale prices further.
โขโ โ Advice: Upgraders should maximize capital gains by selling early in 2026 before this supply glut suppresses prices,.
5) 2026 Outlook
โขโ โ Price Forecast: Private home prices are projected to grow 2-5%, aligning with GDP growth,.
โขโ โ Window of Opportunity: The first 6 months of 2026 represent the final window to buy projects priced under the initial GFA harmonization land costs,.
โขโ โ Land Price Jump: Land sold after mid-2025 (e.g., Newton, Holland Link) has hit new benchmark highs ($1,400โ$1,800+ PSF PPR), meaning future launches will be significantly more expensive.
โขโ โ Strategy: Investors should focus on intrinsic value (MRT nodes, Master Plan areas like Beauty World), and resale owners should sell now to pivot into new launches before the pricing window closes.
Final Verdict
โขโ โ Prediction: The market will "flash" (perform well) rather than crash.
โขโ โ Support Factors: A combination of lower supply, rising affordability, and GFA harmonization keeping entry prices efficient supports a stable market,.
โขโ โ Stability: A crash is unlikely unless a major global event or war impacts Singapore; otherwise, the market remains sustainable.
Aren Goh
Propnex
9657 6701
WILL IT FLASH OR WILL IT CRASH | URA Q4 2025 Flash Estimates00:00 Introduction01:20 TLDR08:26 Sharp divergence10:06 CCR correction 13:22 Public Housing19...
