10/12/2026
DO HOME PRICES DROP IN THE FALL? SOME NUMBERS SOFTEN SEASONALLY, BUT MUCH OF THE CHANGE COMES FROM WHICH HOMES ARE SELLING
History does show a seasonal rhythm in U.S. housing. In most years, the national median sale price peaks around early summer and eases through fall and winter, while the number of sales and new listings drops. What that pattern means is often misread.
Why the median dips. The median is simply the middle sale in a given month. In spring and summer, the mix of homes selling tends to include more higher-priced properties, which pulls the middle up. In the fourth quarter, the mix shifts. A lower median in November doesn't mean any particular home lost value. It means a different set of homes sold. That's why a single month's median change isn't a measure of appreciation or depreciation.
What does tend to change in Q4:
- Fewer new listings, which means less competition for the sellers who do list.
- Fewer buyers overall, though a higher share of them are on a deadline.
- Longer days on market, as showings slow around the holidays.
What it means for sellers. You may face less competition and more motivated buyers, but price for current activity, not for last spring's pace. A well-priced home still sells in Q4. An overpriced one sits longer than it would have in April.
What it means for buyers. Slower activity can create room to negotiate, especially on homes that have been listed since summer. Don't expect a seasonal discount on a well-priced home in a segment with few listings, though. Those still draw attention.
The local read. Central Ohio behaves differently by price point and area, and a metro-wide seasonal pattern can hide a lot. The comparison worth making is specific: how homes in your neighborhood and price range performed this fall compared with the same months in prior years.
The bottom line. Seasonality affects how fast homes sell and how many are available more than it affects what a well-priced home is worth. Plan around the pace, and let recent comparable sales, not the calendar, guide your price.
Want to see how your neighborhood has performed in past fourth quarters? Message me and I'll pull the history for your area and price range.
Norby Fischer | Epique Realty | 614-230-1117 | [email protected]