09/10/2022
RECON Texas Real Estate Research Center
THE TEXAS TRIANGLE is home to 66 percent of Texas' population and accounts for 77 percent of the state's total gross domestic product. According to a new report, a projected population increase and a resilient economy will continue strengthening the region. Read more in today's RECON. (Image from Center files.)
September 9, 2022
NVC: Texas Triangle population to grow, CRE fundamentals remain strong
CENTENNIAL, Colo. (Austin Business Journal) – According to a report by National Valuation Consultants Inc. (NVC), both a projected influx of new residents and a resilient economy will continue strengthening the Texas Triangle region.
NVC defines the Texas Triangle as a 30-mile-wide corridor stretching south from Denton along I-35 to San Antonio through Fort Worth and Austin, east to Houston along I-10, and back north on I-45 through Dallas.
This area is home to 66 percent of Texas' population and accounts for 77 percent of the state's total gross domestic product.
By 2030, the Texas Triangle's population is expected to grow 19 percent to 20 million residents.
"Several factors make the Texas Triangle attractive," said Joshua Roberson, lead data analyst for the Texas Real Estate Research Center. "Housing affordability is a big draw, particularly for households from coastal states. Additionally, Texas has a very business-friendly environment that attracts a lot of potential job-seekers."
Multifamily demand more than doubled in 2021 compared with pre-pandemic levels. Apartment rents grew 15.6 percent year over year in the Texas Triangle, according to NVC.
"Texas experienced a major population boom during the pandemic," Roberson said. "This, combined with low mortgage rates and low housing supply, resulted in an acute price surge in both rents and purchase prices. Now that rates are increasing and population growth is likely moderating, home price and rent growth will likely slow down as well."
Texas Triangle commercial real estate trends NVC reported for 2021 include:
57.2 million sf of industrial space added,
89.5 million sf of industrial absorption,
8.2 million sf of retail space added, and
2.5 million sf of office absorption, returning positive after being negative in 2020.
These demographic and commercial real estate trends were seen in other regions of Texas, though not at the same magnitude.
"While the major metros gain most of the media attention, many smaller metros have also displayed similar demographic patterns," said Roberson. "There has been a lot of growth, particularly among the key young family millennial households, in metros such as Lubbock, Tyler, and Waco, just to name a few.
"I think a lot of it has to do with housing affordability, but other factors such as family proximity and quality of life may play a factor as well."
