08/24/2026
Commercial Lending Solutions | Commercial Finance Market Update | August 24, 2026
This week: Treasury yields rose across the 5, 7, and 10 Year as hawkish July FOMC dissents and Iran-linked energy shocks briefly pushed September hike odds to 82%, before a weak July jobs report pulled odds back near 30%. Long-end yields near the 20 and 30 Year marks held close to 5.2% on persistent term premium and supply concerns, with the September 11 CPI print now the deciding factor for the Fed's next move.
Key Takeaways:
β’ Fed Policy: July minutes (released 8/19) confirmed a 9-3 hold with hawkish dissent from Presidents Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan. Next FOMC meeting Sept 15-16, minutes out Oct 7
β’ Inflation: July CPI 3.4% YoY (core 2.5%), PPI 4.7% YoY, GDP Q2 1.5%, unemployment 4.1%
β’ Yields: 10 Yr 4.65% | 7 Yr 4.48% | 5 Yr 4.35% | 3 Yr 4.25%; SOFR 3.62%, Prime 6.75%
β’ Credit: Freddie Mac 5 Yr ~6.20%, FHA 10 Yr ~5.69%; bank construction lending stays tight, CMBS/bridge steady
β’ LA Market: Multifamily led by BlackRock's $1.63B purchase of Camden Property Trust's 11-property, 3,620-unit SoCal portfolio - the largest U.S. multifamily sale since 2024. Trophy office saw Tishman Speyer's $205.3M Maple Plaza sale to Kilroy Realty, while retail vacancy hit a decade-high 5.6-5.8%
β’ Beyond Brokerage: Debt Is No Longer a Cycle, It's a System Feature - elevated rates reflect structural deficits and sticky inflation, not a passing phase. Underwriting should assume 6% financing as the new baseline, not the exception
Read the full breakdown in this week's newsletter.