06/01/2026
MONDAY MORNING MORTGAGE MARKET BULLETIN
Week of June 1, 2026
MARKET OVERVIEW
Mortgage markets closed the week under modest pressure as Treasury yields remained elevated and mortgage
rates drifted slightly higher. Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed averaged 6.53%, up from 6.51% the prior week. The move
higher was driven largely by inflation concerns tied to energy prices and continued volatility in the Treasury market,
though rates remain below this time last year. Despite affordability headwinds, buyer demand continues to show
resilience, with pending home sales increasing for a third straight month—evidence that many borrowers remain ready
to transact if rates improve even modestly.
LAST WEEK’S KEY HIGHLIGHTS
1. Mortgage Rates Tick Higher Again
Freddie Mac reported the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.53% as of May 28, the highest level in several months.
Rate volatility continues to be driven by inflation expectations, oil prices, and Treasury supply.
2. Buyer Demand Still Building Beneath the Surface
Pending home sales have now risen for three consecutive months. This suggests significant pent-up purchase demand
remains in the market, especially among rate-sensitive buyers waiting for opportunities to lock lower.
3. Refinance Volume Pulled Back
MBA data showed application volume weakened as rates moved higher, with refinance activity taking the biggest hit.
Purchase applications remained comparatively more stable.
4. Housing Inventory Continues to Improve
More resale listings continue to come online compared with early 2025 levels, creating more choices for buyers and
slightly improving affordability leverage in many markets.
UPCOMING ECONOMIC EVENTS (WITH MARKET IMPACT)
Events Mortgage Professionals Should Watch
Monday – June 1
ISM Manufacturing PMI – 10:00 AM ET
Measures business activity in manufacturing. A stronger-than-expected reading can push Treasury yields higher
and pressure mortgage pricing.
Tuesday – June 2
JOLTS Job Openings – 10:00 AM ET
Key labor market indicator. Markets are watching closely for signs of cooling employment demand.
Wednesday – June 3
ADP Employment Report – 8:15 AM ET
Early read on payroll trends ahead of Friday’s jobs report.
ISM Services PMI – 10:00 AM ET
Important because services remain the largest contributor to inflation pressure.
Federal Reserve Beige Book – 2:00 PM ET
Will offer regional economic commentary ahead of the mid-June FOMC meeting.
Thursday – June 4
Initial Jobless Claims – 8:30 AM ET
Weekly labor market trend check.
Friday – June 5 (Most Important This Week)
U.S. Employment Report / Non-Farm Payrolls – 8:30 AM ET
Markets expect approximately 95K–100K jobs added with unemployment near 4.3%. This report will likely be the
biggest driver of mortgage pricing this week. A hot number could push rates higher; softer data may help bonds rally.
10-YEAR TREASURY & MBS TREND SUMMARY
10-Year Treasury
· Closed near 4.45%–4.48%
· Improved late last week after touching recent highs above 4.60% earlier in May
· Currently near three-week lows but remains in a volatile range
Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS)
· MBS pricing improved slightly into Friday’s close
· Pricing remains headline-sensitive and highly reactive to Treasury movement
· Loan pricing remains vulnerable to reprices around major economic data releases this week
Rate Lock Outlook
Loans closing in 15–30 days: consider conservative lock strategy ahead of Friday payrolls
30+ day closings: room to float selectively, but volatility risk remains elevated
HOUSING INVENTORY
Inventory continues improving nationally versus a year ago, with more resale supply giving buyers additional leverage.
While still below historical norms, the increase in listings is helping normalize market conditions and reduce some bidding
pressure in many metro areas.
HOME PRICE UPDATE
U.S. home prices rose 0.1% in March and were 1.7% higher year-over-year, according to FHFA data released last week.
Appreciation continues, but growth has clearly moderated compared with prior years.
Key Trend:
· Price appreciation remains positive
· Inventory gains are helping cap rapid increases
· Builders continue using incentives and concessions to maintain absorption
RISK TO MORTGAGE RATES THIS WEEK
Biggest upward risks:
· Stronger-than-expected payrolls Friday
· Sticky inflation readings
· Rising oil prices / geopolitical developments impacting inflation expectations
· Treasury auction weakness or rising Treasury yields
Biggest downward opportunities:
· Softer labor data
· Weaker ISM readings
· Bond market rally tied to easing inflation expectations
· Any sign the Fed may turn less hawkish later this summer
MORTGAGE MARKET “BOTTOM LINE”
The market enters June with mortgage rates elevated but relatively stable. While affordability remains challenging, the underlying
demand story remains intact—buyers are still engaged, and many are simply waiting for improved rate opportunities. Inventory is
better than last year, pricing is moderating, and the purchase market remains the primary growth lane for originators.
Final Take:
June is starting with opportunity—but volatility will likely define the week. Friday’s jobs report will set the tone for rates heading
deeper into the summer purchase market.
