03/11/2014
…Please Feel Free to Share on Your pages…
**COMPLEX WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY**
The weather forecasting business does not get much trickier than this. Many wannabe forecasters make their guesses based on what they’ve heard from other Meteorologists and pure guesswork. My forecasts are based on decades of experience, raw model interpretation and trends. What you get here is an honest answer and honest forecasts. And honestly speaking….I will tell you that there is a huge bust potential here!!!
Let me first say that I am completely disregarding the NAM model as it seems to be an extreme outlier. The tricky part of this forecast will be how close to the coast this storm tracks and where the changeover line from snow to a wintry mix sets up. I think it will be near Clifton Park, New York. That said…look for some snow and sleet to start, and then a change to snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain. Toward the end of the storm, the wintry mix will change back to snow as colder air rushes in. The computer models are typically too aggressive with this changeover back to snow and I have therefore kept my snow forecasts on the lower end. This will cut down on snowfall amounts from Clifton Park southward (including Albany). Still, these areas should see a 4-8” snowfall. South of Albany, the changeover will be much faster and the change back to snow at the end of the storm will be much slower. Southward to Poughkeepsie, New York….snow should be sufficient to amount to 2-4”. South of Poughkeepsie…there will be little if any accumulation. NYC, NJ and LI should see mostly rain or all rain.
***From Saratoga Springs, NY northward to Glens Falls, NY….it should be mostly snow and snowfall amounts should be higher…in the 8-16” range depending on where the heaviest snow bands setup. I would prepare for a big snow dump in these areas!!!! From Glens Falls, NY northward into the Northern Adirondacks….a bullseye will develop. All snow and mesoscale banding should give these areas as much as 16-24” from Lake George to Schroon Lake, North Creek, North Hudson, Plattsburgh, Etc.
Stay tuned for more details later!!!
