05/06/2026
📊 San Diego Real Estate: The "Price Gap" vs. Structural Scarcity (What’s Really Happening?)
Is the market "slow," or is something else going on? 🤔
If you’ve noticed homes sitting on the market longer or prices adjusting lately, you’re seeing the "Price Gap" in action. While the headlines talk about a housing shortage, the reality on the ground feels different because high mortgage rates have created a friction between what sellers want and what buyers can afford.
But here is the data-backed reality check: I’ve been helping families navigate San Diego real estate since 2005. I’ve seen the 2008 crash, the 2012 recovery, and the pandemic surge. After analyzing 36 years of local data (1990–2026), the "big picture" is clearer than ever:
📉 Inventory Collapse: In 2008, we had 18,500 homes for sale. Today? We are hovering near 2,500.
📈 Population Growth: Since I started in 2005, we’ve added over 300,000 residents to San Diego County, but our supply of detached homes has dropped by nearly 65%.
💰 The $1.5M Horizon: Because of this "Structural Scarcity," research for the 10-year outlook projects San Diego median prices to climb toward $1.5M by 2036.
The Bottom Line: While today’s interest rates are causing some short-term "market drag," your home remains a high-scarcity asset. We aren't in a "bubble"—we are in a supply-and-demand gridlock that protects long-term equity. 🛡️
How was this data created? This isn't a "gut feeling." This analysis was built by overlaying decades of SDAR inventory records against regional population growth and major world events—from the 1993 defense cuts to the current "Mortgage Lock-in" effect.
Moving in this market requires a strategy, not just a sign in the yard. 🏠
Questions about your neighborhood’s specific "Price Gap"? Drop a comment below or DM me for a custom 2026 valuation!
