03/31/2026
1Q 2026 was a very HOT quarter for San Francisco homes - with some crazy overbidding...
TLDR: San Francisco housing prices have lost their minds... (see the map for where. That's percentage over asking price a sale is happening at).
A house in the Inner Richmond asking 2,995,000 and sold $2M over at $4,950,000?!?
Sure. SEVERAL stories just like this one.
The Peninsula is strong as usual, but San Francisco is back from the dead... literally. Houses are better than condos. "Starter" family homes (mid $2)
High-end enclaves like Los Altos Hills and Hillsborough are steady but with building inventory.... ) although 729 Chiltern just sold for 20% over asking at $14.5M (asking $11.995M). See the Red and Green Chart for Hillsborough sales this quarter.
Why SF Houses? Blame Open AI a... $6B was available immediately to employees back in 3Q-4Q of 2025 by allowing a "secondary sale" of their equity. Making it the largest employee wealth creation in tech history according to Jason Lemkin... this has translated into hard assets, real estate.
BURLINGAME + SAN MATEO
With at least 10 off market sales, and at least 20 more selling within a week shows there is pent up demand for homes and the great majority are selling for over asking - with one as high as 39% over asking (2108 Carmelita Ave asking $2.199M and selling for $3.050M).
As of this writing, 67 Homes on the market, 48 of them In Contract (44 Pending), 99 Sold. Solid.
Condos are Slower Across the Board from San Mateo to San Francisco. As an example San Mateo and Burlingame Condos are sluggish at best with sales hovering around asking price - some over some under. But there are over 75 condos currently on the market and 29 sales this year (17 in contract) - there are choices for condo buyers. Average DOM for Condos still on the market is 66 days. Recently higher HOA costs, stubborn interest rates and an aging inventory is contributing to the slowness.
In San Francisco, South Beach, SOMA, and Yerba Buena where the majority of the city's condos are located sale prices are below asking on average. The exception is Mission Bay and Central Waterfront (Dogpatch) with sales 105 and 109% over list respectively (this is the OpenAI effect with OpenAI planting a 1.0M sf office flag pole in Mission Bay).
SAN CARLOS + BELMONT
With at least 10 off market sales, and at least 20 more selling within a week shows there is pent up demand for homes and the great majority are selling for over asking - with one as high as 39% over asking (2108 Carmelita Ave asking $2.199M and selling for $3.050M).
As of this writing, 67 Homes on the market, 48 of them In Contract (44 Pending), 99 Sold. Solid.
LOS ALTOS
in Early February we saw 124 Osage Ave in North Los Altos is a 7BR / 3BA asking $5.495 and sold for 31% over asking at $7.2M.
At least 18 more selling 10-20% over asking (e.g., asking 4.995M selling for 5.9M, asking 3.75M selling for $4.1M).
However, we are hearing things slowing down of late with new inventory coming to market - 41 properties on the market, 47 sold and 17 Pending.
