Moneyball Austin

06/08/2026

Getting the chance to buy a top-quality stock at roughly a 33% discount is an opportunity I will take every time.

05/08/2026

Top 3 Underrated Trading Techniques;

1) Let your trades play out by letting price either hit your SL or TP. You'll know after 50x trades whether the system you're trading works.

2) Stop trading mechanical or step-by-step systems. Trading like this commonly lacks the ability to adapt to changing market conditions, while traders who understand market context can adjust when conditions change.

3) Build your trading around your own strengths and weaknesses. Every trader is different. The best trading system is one that's built around you.... Your personality, schedule, risk tolerance, and decision-making style.

Bonus: Lower your risk until you don't care about the outcome of a single trade. Not so low that you become reckless, but low enough that you can detach from the P&L and make objective, emotion-free decisions.

04/08/2026

Closed Microsoft $MSFT MTF Long Trade Review.

Why did I buy Microsoft?
- Price was sitting inside weekly and monthly demand, with daily confirmation for entry.
- Microsoft is one of the most widely owned long-term stocks by banks, institutional investors, and even government officials.
- MSFT had underperformed many other Nasdaq stocks over the previous year. In my opinion, it's still a top-quality company, so getting the chance to buy it at roughly a 33% discount was an opportunity I was happy to take.

Why was everyone bearish back in March? At the time I was buying, most people wanted nothing to do with Microsoft. The market had several concerns:
- Microsoft was spending tens of billions on AI infrastructure, and investors questioned whether the returns would come fast enough.
- Azure was still growing, but not quickly enough to meet the market's very high expectations.
- Investors wanted AI to immediately translate into higher revenue and profits.
- There were doubts about how quickly products like Copilot would generate meaningful revenue.
- Microsoft traded at a premium valuation, so even good earnings weren't enough if they didn't exceed expectations.
- Rising economic uncertainty and interest rate concerns caused many investors to rotate out of expensive growth stocks.
- New CEO of Xbox.

Looking back:
- Most of those concerns turned out to be short-term issues rather than long-term problems.
- Microsoft remains one of the highest-quality companies in the world and one of the most popular long-term holdings among institutions. The fundamentals never changed; it was simply a period where market sentiment turned negative.
- Recent strong earnings.
- This is a good reminder that great companies can still go on sale. When a top-tier business is trading around a 33% discount while sitting in higher-timeframe demand, I'll take that opportunity every time.

04/08/2026

Trading News For The Week 📊📰
OPEC Meeting (Mon):
- The latest OPEC meeting on Monday, resulted in an agreement to increase oil production by 188,000 barrels per day for September.

Quarterly Refunding Announcement (Wed):
- The US Treasury will release its Q3 financing estimates on Monday, followed by the Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) on Wednesday. The main focus is whether the Treasury changes its guidance on bond auction sizes. Although JPMorgan believes larger debt issuance will eventually be needed due to a growing funding gap, it expects the Treasury to avoid any changes for now to prevent disrupting bond markets ahead of the November midterm elections. Treasury Secretary Bessent has also previously linked issuance plans to bond yields. This will also be the first QRA under new Fed Chair Warsh following his second Fed meeting.

US ISM Manufactuing (WED):
- As a proxy, S&P Global’s flash manufacturing PMI edged down to 53.8 in July (from 53.9 in June), a four-month low, with the output index also cooling to 53.6 (from 56.2), the weakest since March.

Canadian Jobs (FRI):
- In its July communications, the BoC has framed labour market conditions as soft, with the unemployment rate standing at 6.5% in June, and been hovering in a range of 6.2-7.0% since the end of 2024. This months headlines is expected to remain the same.

US Jobs Report (FRI):
- Payrolls are expected to print 88k in July (prev. 57k), with the unemployment rate seen unchanged at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings are seen rising by 0.3% M/M, marching the prior rate, and the annual rate is also seen unchanged at 3.5% Y/Y.

Stock Earnings:
- McDonald's, Shopify, Caterpillar, Disney will be releasing earnings this week.

Trump Meeting:
- Trump will be meeting with some CEO's of AI stocks on Tuesday and Mining CEOs and Executives on Friday.

04/08/2026

Nano Futures will be coming to the markets starting August 24th.

Unless you’re brand new into trading, this is a complete disaster.

Expect much larger fees for those who are trading these markets.

01/08/2026

Have a great weekend my friends! 🫡

31/07/2026

Trade Management Strategy For Stop Loss.

Most traders have a trailing stop loss or make emotional based decisions which then puts the trader into the position to make emotional based decisions and blow the account.

Instead, I’m a fan of traders never moving the SL and leering price either hit the TP OR SL.

Now, is this optimal?

NO, not at all, but it will let you know if you have a profitable system and then the trader can build on that.

31/07/2026

New Video going over 3x trade reviews using a combination of supply-demand, COT reports, and fundamentals. Real Edge!

Most traders think only in terms of "technicals", which is why so many traders are stuck at breakeven or even losing.

Start the next week off with this new plan in mind!

Swing Trading: The Supply And Demand Trading Strategy Going Over 3 ...

30/07/2026

How to Trade COT Reports.

The CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) relases these weekly reports on the current positions of the banks and institutions.

We can then use this data to increase our trading edge.

So I’m here today to show you not only how to read the COT reports, but also but to trade these COT reports.

Otherwise know if the CFTC commitment of trader report.

Feel free to DM or comment “COT” for help on software and direct coaching on this.

29/07/2026

Market participants are pricing in a "75% chance" that the Fed makes "no change" to interest rates.

This is the closest the market has been to a "split decision" in a while.

Personally, I still expect "no change", but if the Fed does surprise the market, the odds are around +300.