10/09/2026
Investors tend to assume that whatever happened recently will keep happening. Three years of rising prices, and the read becomes "prices will keep rising." Six months of falling rents, and the read becomes "the market is slowing down."
Both conclusions can be wrong for the same reason: recency bias, the tendency to weight recent events more heavily than the longer pattern they sit inside. A short run of data feels like a trend because it's vivid and close at hand, not because it's statistically reliable. Markets move in cycles longer than a quarter or two, and a single stretch of movement, in either direction, rarely tells you where the cycle actually stands.
The corrective isn't to ignore recent data. It's to weigh it against the longer record, supply pipeline, transaction volume over years rather than months, structural demand, before drawing a conclusion from it.
Know someone stuck on "prices will keep rising" or "the market is slowing down"? Share this with them.
DGM Investment. Structured decisions, built for the long term.
