Palash Dave: Property Investment Strategist

25/09/2026

"Will the new tax changes hurt me?"

It's the question I'm hearing most from investors right now.

New research from the e61 Institute, an independent economic research institute, gives a clearer answer than the headlines.

They applied the CGT and negative gearing changes to ~920,000 real housing investments held between 2008 and 2025.

53% of investors would pay more tax. 43% would pay less.

That's not a hit to every investor. It's a split, and it runs through both taxes:

• Capital gains: lower for 54% of investments, higher for 42%
• Rental income: higher for 49% of investors, lower for 28%, the rest largely neutral

Which side you land on comes down to your borrowing, your expected growth, whether you buy established or new, and your tax rate when you sell.

I've broken it down in the slides.

One thing to keep in mind. This is an "all else equal" exercise. e61 applied the new rules to what actually happened between 2008 and 2025, and the model holds investor behaviour constant. Rates, prices and behaviour will all move from here. So read the 53/43 split as a map of who is exposed under the rules, not a forecast of anyone's outcome.

Which is the point: the averages tell you less than your own numbers do.

The policy is the same for everyone. The outcome isn't.

Full e61 research note (free): https://e61.in/how-many-housing-investors-pay-more-tax-under-the-reforms/

General commentary only, not personal financial, credit or tax advice.

24/09/2026

Investor loan applications: down 26% since the Budget.
First home buyer applications: down 30%.
Westpac's forecast: correction bottoms near 7%, then ~3% growth in 2027 and 8% in 2028.

Both things are true, because falling demand doesn't build houses.

As RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter put it: a supply shortage puts upward pressure on prices.

Fewer buyers competing. Same shortage underneath. That's a window.

Email [email protected]

17/09/2026

The housing correction isn't staying at the top end.

It's spreading down the ladder — into middle and lower-priced markets, with capital cities carrying most of the decline.

I was on ausbiz last week talking through what's driving it and, more importantly, where it's pushing investor activity.

A few of the numbers behind it:

→ Investors are sitting out at roughly 5x the rate of owner-occupiers and first-home buyers
→ Sydney borrowers are stretching to ~7.7x income against a typical 6x threshold
→ Rental growth has softened from 5.9% to 5.7%, taking some of the edge off the investment case
→ Tax changes (CGT, negative gearing) are adding to the reasons investors are stepping back

What's interesting isn't the retreat — it's where the activity is going instead. We're seeing clear corridor rotation: investors moving out of Logan and Moreton Bay toward Ipswich in SEQ, and out of Wyndham toward Kalkallo and Wallan in Melbourne's north.

When affordability tightens, the market doesn't stop — it moves. Knowing where it's moving to is the whole game.

Watch the full segment 👇

Key points:Dave sees the housing downturn spreading from top-end to middle and lower-priced marketsHigher rates and income multiples are, in his view, squeezing borrowing capacity and affordabilityInvestor retreat, softer rent growth and construction...

03/09/2026

Mortgage demand fell 5.4% last quarter. Owner-occupier loans down 3.3%. Investor lending down too (ABS).

Most people read that as bad news.

We read it as less competition.

Every buyer sitting on the sidelines waiting for a "safe" headline is a bidder you're not up against.

The investors who win this window aren't guessing the bottom — they've got finance sorted and they're negotiating hard.

Waiting is a position too. It has risks.

[email protected]

02/09/2026

National rental vacancy: 1.3%. That's 40,771 empty homes in the entire country (SQM Research, July).

Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Darwin and Hobart are all under 1%. Darwin is at 0.3%.

Meanwhile rents are rising in 57.6% of suburbs — and prices have eased four months straight.

Softer entry price. Stronger rent. Yields back up to ~3.50%.

Owner-occupiers watch prices. Investors watch yield.

Email [email protected] to see which corridors stack up

30/08/2026

Listings just jumped 12.4% nationally in July — the biggest lift in over a year (SQM Research).

SA is up 11.8% for the month and 31.4% on last year. Perth is up 10.0% year-on-year.

More stock. Fewer competing buyers. Vendors actually negotiating.

For two years investors were fighting ten other offers in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth. That's thinning right now.

The discount you can negotiate today is real. The bottom of the cycle is invisible until it's gone.

DM us or email [email protected]

13/08/2026

"Home values are falling" is a national average — and after 75+ client purchases this year, I can tell you it's one of the least useful numbers in property.

Sydney and Melbourne are soft. But the affordable, jobs-led markets we're actually buying in — parts of QLD, SA and select corridors — are a different story on the ground. Hotspotting's research backs it up.

We don't buy "the market." We buy locations we're in every week.

DM us or email [email protected] 📍

12/08/2026

Half of all auctions didn't sell last week — clearance rate 49.7%, down from 68.5% a year ago.

More sellers are switching to private treaty, which means more properties are quietly negotiable.

This is exactly when a buyer's agent earns their fee: reading motivation, structuring the offer, negotiating hard.

Email [email protected] 🏡

09/08/2026

National home values fell for the third month running in June — the biggest monthly drop since 2022.

Most people see a reason to wait. Investors see negotiating power shifting back to the buyer: fewer competing bids, vendors meeting the market, time to do it right.

The rate is holding at 4.35%. Supply is tight. Rents are rising. This is a buyer's window.

DM us or email [email protected] 📩

07/08/2026

"Growth already banked is not growth you'll receive."

Vacancy. Population. Yield. Employment depth. The factors that drive the next five years are the only ones that earn a weighting in our model. Townsville tops the table; the full scores for all 25 markets are in the report.

Comment "RANKING" and we'll send you a full copy of the report.