16/06/2026
The Reserve Bank Of Australia (RBA) has today announced that it will hold the official Cash Rate steady at its current level of 4.35%. The decision, was broadly forecast by major Bank Economists and Financial Markets, and pauses the current tightening cycle, which first began in February 2026. The RBA’s decision to maintain the Cash Rate at its current setting suggests it is prioritising a wait-and-see approach to ensure Inflationary pressures are not sustained and to assess the economic impacts of the three consecutive Cash Rate hikes between February and May.
The decision will provide temporary relief for Australia’s mortgagors, with Australian households already facing mounting financial strain; and the RBA’s Policy decision was unanimous.
In its post meeting statement, the RBA Board stated that it remained "focused on ensuring that Inflation does not become embedded once the impulse from higher oil prices has passed through. To achieve this, growth in demand needs to slow to reduce capacity pressures and help bring Inflation back to target”. Following the three increases in the Cash Rate target since the beginning of the year, financial conditions are now tighter than they were, and there are signs that the Economy is slowing as expected. “But inflation is still too high and the Board judged that it was appropriate to leave the Cash Rate target unchanged while it assesses the response to previous Interest Rate rises and the impact of the oil supply disruption” they commented.
From the perspective of P & J Financial Solutions, we believe that today’s Cash Rate Decision was expected and that the Monetary Policy Board is likely waiting for more data to become available to allow them to fully assess what impact the three consecutive rate hikes this year are having on Inflation. While Inflation remains above the RBA's 2%–3% target band, conditions still remain of a concern and need careful monitoring as a single pause does not translate into meaningful relief for households still adapting to a much higher repayment base. Today’s decision should be seen as part of a longer adjustment phase, not an indication that the cycle has turned in Borrowers’ favour.
We also believe that improving conditions in the Middle East and expected further clarity in relation to the Federal Budget changes could help ease rising uncertainty in the Lending Market.
Several economists have suggested that the RBA may now move to an extended Cash Rate “hold” period, driven by weakening Economic momentum (Australia’s Gross Domestic Product grew by just 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (to start 2026) and emerging slack in the Labour Market (the National jobless rate increased from 4.3% to 4.5% per in April). Evaporating Consumer and Business confidence, plummeting expectations, and stabilising Geopolitical and Global tensions have also been listed as key factors for the RBA ”pumping the brakes”. However, the RBA is also grappling with persistent pressures, with trimmed mean Inflation (the RBA’s preferred gauge) ticking upward from 3.3 to 3.4% in April, well above their target band of 2-3%.
All four major Banks lined up behind a unified call that the Cash Rate would remain unchanged in June – yet have offered strikingly different blueprints for what happens over the rest of 2026 and into 2027. The National Australia Bank Limited last week abandoned its expectation of a further 25-basis-point increase, recasting 4.35% as the height of the tightening cycle and forecasting the next move to be a cut towards the middle of 2027. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia and the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited have been predicting an extended hold period since the May meeting – with both banks forecasting Cash Rate reductions to commence in the second half of 2027. Westpac Banking Corporation, which was anticipating a hold result in June, remains the outlier among the major Banks - and believes the RBA will hike the Cash Rate at its August and September meetings due to stubbornly high Inflation.
As the Interest Rate forecast remains somewhat “muddled”, many Australians are unknowing victims of ‘Rate Creep”, where Lenders raise rates for existing customers while offering discounted rates to new borrowers. This means they could be paying more in repayments than they should be, and this is where a review of options by an independent Broker becomes essential.
Therefore, all Borrowers (both personal and / or business) possess the utmost need for knowledgeable and experienced guidance and advice when reviewing and considering their financing options be they for new, increased, or additional finance; or simply a “health check” as the prevailing Economic climate will remain uncertain for some time. As such, please do not wait or hesitate to reach out to Paul or Jason at P & J Financial Solutions for such assistance, guidance, and advice in a professional and friendly manner.🤔