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"Geelong is not one market. Here's the complete framework we use before recommending any acquisition there." Over the pa...
09/04/2026

"Geelong is not one market. Here's the complete framework we use before recommending any acquisition there."

Over the past few weeks I've been sharing how I actually think about Geelong as an investment market, not the city narrative, not the suburb guide, but the strategic framework that determines whether a specific pocket is worth pursuing for a specific brief.

I've pulled the full series together in one place.

Nine slides. The complete picture.

What's covered:

Slide 1 — Why most investors approach Geelong the wrong way

Slide 2 — Why Victoria's recovery cycle makes Geelong worth watching right now

Slide 3 — The real demand drivers, beyond lifestyle and affordability

Slide 4 — Why cheap is not the same as value, and what structural risk actually looks like

Slide 5 — The five distinct acquisition lanes within Geelong, and which brief suits each

Slide 6 — The pattern I see most often with investors who underperform here

Slide 7 — Leopold vs Corio: the clearest example of why micro-market selection matters

Slide 8 — The three questions every investor should answer before committing to any Geelong acquisition

Slide 9 — What alignment actually means, and what the next step looks like

The through-line across all of it: Geelong can work exceptionally well. It can also disappoint. The difference is almost never the region. It's almost always the pocket, the supply story, and whether the acquisition was matched to a genuine brief.

If you've been thinking about Geelong and want to work through whether it fits your situation, reach out directly. Send me a DM or email [email protected]

Aaron Dore | Pland Property

If you're considering Geelong, the first step isn't suburb browsing. It's alignment. This is the through-line of everyth...
07/04/2026

If you're considering Geelong, the first step isn't suburb browsing. It's alignment.

This is the through-line of everything I've shared in this series.

Geelong can work exceptionally well. The demand fundamentals are real. The recovery cycle is underway. The infrastructure pipeline is significant. The population trajectory is clear. For investors with the right brief, the right pocket, and the right timing, Geelong in 2026 presents a genuine opportunity.

But Geelong can also disappoint. And when it does, it's almost never because the city failed. It's because the specific acquisition wasn't aligned to the investor's brief: the wrong pocket, the wrong supply story, the wrong equity window, the wrong resale audience.

The work isn't deciding whether Geelong is good or bad. The work is determining whether a specific pocket, at a specific price, aligned to your specific plan, makes sense for your situation.

That's what the Investment Brief process is for. It takes suburb browsing off the table and replaces it with a structured conversation about what you actually need your next property to do, and whether Geelong, in the right lane, is the answer.

If you've been thinking about Geelong and want to have that conversation, reach out directly.

To discuss further, send Aaron a DM or email [email protected]

Before you buy in Geelong, you should be able to answer these three questions clearly. I use these three questions as a ...
05/04/2026

Before you buy in Geelong, you should be able to answer these three questions clearly.

I use these three questions as a filter before I recommend any Geelong acquisition to a client. If the answers aren't clear, we don't proceed, regardless of how good the headline narrative sounds.

Question 1: Does this pocket have a scarcity and demand story, or just a lower entry price? These are not the same thing. Scarcity means supply is constrained and the demand side is owner-occupier led. A lower entry price just means it's cheaper. You need to know which one you're actually buying into.

Question 2: What is the likely new supply within your equity window? If you need equity in 3 to 4 years, what is being built or approved in that corridor within that timeframe? Competing new stock can cap growth even in a rising market. This needs to be researched, not assumed.

Question 3: In a softer market, who is your resale buyer, and how many similar options would they have? Your exit matters as much as your entry. If the market softens, who buys your property, and what competition do they have? Shallow buyer pools and high competing inventory are the two things that turn a flat market into a loss.

If you can answer all three clearly and confidently, you're buying with alignment. If you can't, you're buying on assumption.

To discuss further, send Aaron a DM or email [email protected]

Leopold and Corio are both "in Geelong." They are not the same investment. This is the clearest example I can give of wh...
03/04/2026

Leopold and Corio are both "in Geelong." They are not the same investment.

This is the clearest example I can give of why micro-market selection matters more than the city narrative.

Leopold sits within the Bellarine corridor. It's lifestyle-linked, family-oriented, and backed by genuine owner-occupier demand. Vacancy rates are tight. The buyer pool includes families upgrading, lifestyle-oriented purchasers, and investors who understand the Bellarine demand story. Current data shows early-cycle momentum signals, the kind that tend to precede price acceleration rather than follow it.

Corio sits in a corridor that attracts attention primarily because of price. The entry point is lower. But it also carries a documented structural risk profile, including public housing concentration above thresholds that correlate with lower long-term doubling probability, weaker socioeconomic positioning, and a resale audience that is shallower and more investor-dependent than lifestyle-driven markets.

Both are 'in Geelong.' Both might appear in the same suburb search. But they are not the same investment. They don't have the same demand depth. They don't have the same resale buyer. They don't have the same long-term equity story.

This is exactly why I say Geelong isn't one market. The question isn't whether you're buying in Geelong. It's whether you're buying into the right part of it.

To discuss further, send Aaron a DM or email [email protected]

The pattern I see most often with Geelong investors who underperform. It's not complicated. The pattern is almost always...
01/04/2026

The pattern I see most often with Geelong investors who underperform.

It's not complicated. The pattern is almost always the same.

The investor starts with a number. They want Geelong exposure at an accessible price point. They've read the headlines. They know the city is growing. They start searching by suburb name and filtering by price.

They find something that fits the budget. It ticks the surface-level boxes. They buy it.

Two to four years later, equity is flat or soft. The suburb technically 'performed' — median prices moved. But their specific property, in their specific street, with their specific buyer pool, didn't move with it. Or it moved, but not enough to justify the capital tied up and the opportunity cost of sitting still.

The mistake wasn't buying Geelong. The mistake was buying 'Geelong', as though the city label guaranteed a result, as though every pocket shared the same fundamentals, as though price point was a substitute for strategy.

The investors who do well in Geelong start with a brief, not a budget. They know their equity window. They know what their resale buyer looks like. They've screened for supply. They buy a specific micro-location that matches all of that, not a suburb name that sounds right.

The difference between those two approaches is the difference between a flat outcome and a strong one.

To discuss further, send Aaron a DM or email [email protected]

When I look at Geelong, I don't see one market. I see five distinct acquisition lanes. This is the most important refram...
30/03/2026

When I look at Geelong, I don't see one market. I see five distinct acquisition lanes.

This is the most important reframe for anyone considering Geelong.

Geelong is not a single investment decision. It's a city containing at least five meaningfully different markets, each with a different buyer profile, supply dynamic, and risk story.

1. The inner established belt: older character homes, tighter stock, strong owner-occupier depth. This is where scarcity is most defensible and resale is most liquid. Entry price reflects it.

2. The family middle-ring: practical liveability, school catchment demand, broad resale appeal. Outcomes here depend heavily on street positioning and proximity to the amenity that drives family demand.

3. The Bellarine and Surf Coast corridor: lifestyle-linked demand, some pockets showing earlier-cycle momentum, genuine owner-occupier intent. Not all of it is equal but the underlying pull is real.

4. The northern affordability corridor: this is where I'm most careful. Lower entry price attracts attention, but some pockets here carry structural risk that requires rigorous screening before any consideration.

5. The outer fringe and new estates: the key filter here isn't the suburb, it's the supply profile within your equity window. If I can't get comfortable with future supply in the next 2 to 4 years, I'm not interested regardless of how good the headline story sounds.

Buying 'Geelong' is not a strategy. Buying a specific lane, aligned to a specific brief, that's a strategy.

To discuss further, send Aaron a DM or email [email protected]

Cheap is not the same as value. This is the most common mistake I see in Geelong. The most consistent pattern I see with...
28/03/2026

Cheap is not the same as value. This is the most common mistake I see in Geelong.

The most consistent pattern I see with investors who underperform in Geelong is this: they bought on price, not on strategy.

They found a suburb with a lower entry point than Melbourne. They liked the narrative. They bought.

What they didn't screen for was whether that pocket had a genuine scarcity and demand story, or just a lower price. Whether the future supply pipeline within their equity window would cap growth. Whether their resale buyer actually existed in depth.

Some Geelong pockets carry structural headwinds that headline price data will never show you. High public housing concentration above certain thresholds correlates with measurably lower long-term doubling probability. Investor-heavy streets with low owner-occupier depth perform differently in softer cycles. Corridors with significant new supply competing within a 3 to 4 year equity window can cap growth regardless of what the broader market does.

None of these risks show up in a price chart. They show up 2 to 4 years later when equity is flat and the resale audience is shallower than expected.

Value in Geelong is a scarcity and demand story. Affordability is just a lower entry price. They are not the same thing, and confusing them is the most expensive mistake you can make in this market.

To discuss further, send Aaron a DM or email [email protected]

What actually makes Geelong credible as an investment market, and what most people get wrong about it. The Geelong deman...
25/03/2026

What actually makes Geelong credible as an investment market, and what most people get wrong about it.

The Geelong demand story gets talked about a lot. But most commentary stays at the surface level: lifestyle, affordability, Melbourne proximity. Those things are real, but they're not the whole picture.

What actually makes Geelong credible is the depth and diversity of its employment base. Barwon Health employs over 8,000 people. Deakin University employs over 4,000. The TAC, WorkSafe and the NDIS have formally established Geelong as Australia's national centre for social insurance excellence. KPMG opened a Geelong office in 2023 specifically because of the region's growing professional business community. This is white-collar employment depth that is rare outside a capital city.

That employment base creates genuine owner-occupier demand, the kind that holds through soft cycles because people aren't just investing here, they're living and working here.

Add Melbourne connectivity via a recently upgraded rail line, Bellarine and Surf Coast lifestyle pull, and a population forecast to grow from 300,000 today to 442,000 by 2046, and you have a city-grade demand profile in a regional price bracket.

But those drivers don't flow evenly through every part of Geelong. The demand case for the city is strong. The demand case for any specific pocket depends on entirely different factors.

To discuss further, send Aaron a DM or email [email protected]

Victoria is in the early stage of a market recovery. Here's what that means for Geelong investors. After years of underp...
23/03/2026

Victoria is in the early stage of a market recovery. Here's what that means for Geelong investors.

After years of underperformance relative to the rest of the country, Victoria is showing genuine signs of recovery. It's the only mainland state where yields are currently expanding rather than compressing, a signal that prices softened while rents held, and that entry conditions for investors are more attractive now than they've been in several years.

Geelong sits within that broader Victorian recovery story. But it also has its own demand fundamentals that make it worth watching independently of the state cycle.

Greater Geelong ranked as Australia's number one regional migration destination in the 12 months to March 2025. The $500 million Barwon Women's and Children's Hospital is under construction. The Nyaal Banyul Convention Centre opens July 2026. The Geelong Line upgrade, completed in 2024, makes the Melbourne commute more viable than at any point in the city's history.

The macro case is real. But improving conditions don't lift every pocket equally. In a market where momentum is building, the gap between a well-selected asset and a poorly-selected one can actually widen.

The opportunity in Geelong right now is genuine. So is the need to be selective.

To discuss further, send Aaron a DM or email [email protected]

Most investors treat Geelong like one market. It isn't. Most investors approach Geelong the same way. They hear the city...
21/03/2026

Most investors treat Geelong like one market. It isn't.

Most investors approach Geelong the same way. They hear the city narrative, Melbourne connectivity, lifestyle pull, affordable entry, and they start suburb browsing.

The problem isn't Geelong. The problem is treating a city with five distinct micro-markets as though every pocket shares the same drivers, the same buyer pool, and the same future.

Some parts of Geelong are backed by deep owner-occupier demand, genuine scarcity, and durable fundamentals. Others attract attention primarily because they're cheap. And cheap is not the same as value.

The investors I see struggle in Geelong aren't the ones who got the city wrong. They're the ones who got the pocket wrong, because they never had a strategy to begin with. They had a budget and a suburb name.

Over the next few posts I'm breaking down exactly how I think about Geelong: the demand story, the risk filters, the micro-market map, and the three questions every investor should be able to answer before committing to any acquisition here.

If you're considering Geelong in 2026, this series is worth following.

To discuss further, send Aaron a DM or email [email protected]

"Is now a good time to buy?"It's not the wrong question. It's just not the first one.I get asked about market timing reg...
20/03/2026

"Is now a good time to buy?"

It's not the wrong question. It's just not the first one.

I get asked about market timing regularly.

And honestly, cycle awareness matters.

If your brief includes an equity extraction target within a defined window, then yes, buying into a market with above-average growth conditions is a legitimate strategic consideration.

Understanding where a market sits in its cycle isn't speculation.

It's part of a well-constructed brief.

But here's where most investors go wrong.

They lead with the timing question before they've answered the more foundational ones:
> What's my equity target and over what timeframe?
> What's my hold capacity if the market moves sideways for 12–18 months?
> Does the micro-location have genuine scarcity and owner-occupier depth?
> Who is my resale buyer and how many similar options would they have?

Because cycle awareness without brief clarity is just a more informed version of guessing.

The sequence matters.

Brief first. Cycle awareness second. Market and micro-location selection third.

When those three things align, you're not timing the market.

You're making a structured, defensible acquisition decision.

If you'd like to understand how I work through an investment brief, including how I factor in market cycle positioning, feel free to send me a message.

Happy to have an obligation free conversation about where you're at and whether structured investing makes sense for your situation.

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Geelong, VIC

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