Bow Tie Buyers Agency

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22/09/2026

The RBA just admitted it never modelled what cutting government spending would do to inflation.

Not once.

Every rate decision over the last few years has landed on the kitchen tables of mortgage holders. Families tightened the belt. Small business owners wore the higher repayments. The message was always that interest rates were the tool we had to use.

Meanwhile the other big lever was sitting right there, and nobody tested it.

I spent 20 years in data and commercial negotiation with some of the biggest retailers in the world. If I'd walked into one of those meetings having only modelled one side of the deal, I'd have been shown the door.

If you're buying property right now, this matters. Rates could stay higher for longer than a lot of people expect, so your plan needs to work even if the cuts don't come. That's why I stress test every purchase against the numbers and not the headlines.

Are you banking on rate cuts next year? Tell me in the comments where you land.

21/09/2026

Tony Burke says the housing crisis isn't about immigration — it's about Australians choosing smaller households. His own government's housing council data tells a different story. 👀

Economists are split: some call it "gaslighting," others say he's got a point. The truth? Australia's short 200-300k homes and there's more than one factor at play.

What do you think is really driving the housing crisis — swipe through and let me know 👇

18/09/2026

Wednesday 30 September. Newcastle. 10 seats. Dinner included.

I'm walking through three real commercial deals. We're breaking down what makes them work. We're talking about what doesn't.

You bring a deal you're looking at. We pick it apart. No slideshow. No pitch. Just real talk about the numbers.

The bonus is twenty years of negotiating tactics from selling into Woolies and Costco. That translates directly into how you negotiate a commercial purchase.

Limited seats. 6:30 to 8:30. INNX in Newcastle West. Fifty bucks, dinner sorted.

If you're an investor on the Coast or Newcastle thinking about your first commercial purchase, this is it.

go.bowtiebuyersagency.com.au/newcastle

17/09/2026

High speed rail's coming to the Central Coast and Newcastle. Fifty-five billion dollars. Supposedly a game changer.

Everyone's talking about property values rising. Everyone's talking about housing boom. Everyone's banking on it.

But here's what nobody's actually discussing: where are the upgraded roads?

If HSR is going to bring all this extra housing, all this extra population to the Central Coast, Lake Macquarie, Newcastle — where's the infrastructure to support it? Who's talking about the roads that need to be upgraded? The congestion? The transport networks?

You can build a fifty-five billion dollar train, but if the roads can't handle the volume of people moving around once they get here, you've just created a different problem.

The proposition sounds good on paper. The infrastructure conversation? That's nowhere to be found.

DM "HSR" if you want to talk about what this actually means for the regions.

16/09/2026

Do you know the difference between an industrial unit, retail, office, and a medical property?

Because they're not the same.

Tenant quality is different. Risk profile is different. How you analyze them is different.

An industrial tenant is different from a retail tenant. A medical property has different dynamics than an office building. Location matters differently in each one. The lease terms mean something different.

You can't use the same methodology for all of them. Each type has its own rules.

That's why most people fail at commercial. They treat all commercial property the same.

DM "types" if you want to understand which one actually works for you.

15/09/2026

What age do you want to retire?

Most people don't have an answer. They just assume it'll happen at sixty-five because that's what they've been told.

But here's the real question: do you actually know how much money you need to make that happen? Not a guess. Not a number someone else told you. Your actual number.

Because without that number, retirement is just a hope.

With it, it's a plan.

What's your number? DM "number" and let's work it out.

14/09/2026

You can't compare commercial property the same way you compare residential.

In residential, you look at comparables. Find a four bed, two bath, two car in the same suburb and use that to value another one.

Commercial doesn't work that way. You can't compare an industrial unit using the same suburb-based comparable method you'd use on a house. The variables are completely different.

Location. Lease terms. Tenant quality. Cap rates. Income. These are the variables that matter. Not whether it's in the same suburb as another unit.

That's why most people get commercial wrong. They're using residential methodology in a commercial world.

DM "commercial" if you want to understand how we actually compare.

10/09/2026

Speed limits dropping from 60 to 50 across NSW.

Cars are safer now than they've ever been. Better brakes. Better handling. Better safety features. Better driver tech.
Yet somehow we're slowing down more.

The logic doesn't add up. If cars are objectively safer, why are the speed limits getting lower? What's the actual reason we're doing this?

I genuinely don't understand it.

09/09/2026

Most people look at an office building and see a yield. That's not enough.

Here are the three things that actually matter when you're looking at office space.

Location: How easy is it for people to get to this building? That determines whether tenants stay or leave.

Tenant tenure and lease terms: How long have they been there? What's the lease length? A tenant who's been there five years and just signed five more is different from someone in year two of a three-year deal.

Tenant quality: What does that actually mean? Can they afford the rent? Are they stable? Are they the kind of business that's going to be around in five years?
Get these three right and the office building works. Miss any of them and you're guessing.

DM "commercial" if you want to talk through it.

08/09/2026

The residential real estate market just contracted by $34.1 billion in one quarter. First time in four years. Prices falling across every state.

But here's what nobody's actually talking about.

State governments rely heavily on stamp duty revenue from property sales. If the market keeps contracting, what happens to that revenue stream?

And the big four banks. They've got massive exposure to residential lending. If house prices continue collapsing like the forecasts suggest, what's the actual exposure there?

These aren't doomsday questions. They're the systemic questions that actually matter when a trillion-dollar market starts moving.

DM "commercial" if you want to talk about what actually happens next.

Address

Gosford, NSW

Telephone

+61402293933

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