17/07/2026
Property investors have spent decades treating new builds as the asset you buy when you don't know better. The proposed negative gearing reforms may be about to make that snobbery expensive.
The headline debate has focused on house prices. The more consequential shift is happening inside investor borrowing capacity.
Our research division's analysis suggests borrowing capacity on established property could fall by as much as 20 per cent once lenders stop crediting negative gearing benefits in serviceability assessments — the difference, in practical terms, between a $700,000 acquisition and a $560,000 one.
Let me be clear about what our data actually says: established property outperforms new builds — by roughly 2–3% per annum in the same market. That's not in dispute. New estates inject supply, and supply moderates growth.
But growth rate was never the only line on the ledger.
New builds attract substantially higher depreciation deductions, valued at today's construction costs. Combined with the retained negative gearing treatment under the proposed changes, a well-selected new build sits close to cash flow neutral at long-term average rates. For investors already holding two or three established assets, that's the difference between continuing to accumulate and being forced to stop.
Cash flow is the constraint that stalls many investors — not the desire to build wealth.
The caveat is selection. New build corridors live and die on underlying demand. Our data shows development suburbs in QLD, SA and NSW matching or exceeding their nearest capital city across recent growth cycles — but only where vacancy rates, population inflow and affordability support the broader market. Buy into a corridor without those fundamentals and no depreciation schedule will save you.
Established versus new was always the wrong fight. Most portfolios will end up holding both: established for the long-term compounding, new builds to stay in the market when cash flow would otherwise force a halt. The order matters more than the ideology.
Full analysis on the blog : https://ap1.hubs.ly/H0167w70
*𝑮𝒆𝒏𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒍 𝒊𝒏𝒇𝒐𝒓𝒎𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒐𝒏𝒍𝒚, 𝒏𝒐𝒕 𝒇𝒊𝒏𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒊𝒂𝒍 𝒂𝒅𝒗𝒊𝒄𝒆 — 𝒚𝒐𝒖𝒓 𝒄𝒊𝒓𝒄𝒖𝒎𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒆𝒔 𝒅𝒆𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒎𝒊𝒏𝒆 𝒚𝒐𝒖𝒓 𝒔𝒕𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒆𝒈𝒚*
Could investors lose up to 20% borrowing power? Learn how the proposed new-build tax carve-out may reshape long-term property investment.