25/10/2026
Melbourne’s Property Slowdown — Could This Be a Buying Opportunity on the Peninsula?
Melbourne’s property market is going through a challenging period. Interest rates have affected borrowing capacity, buyer confidence has softened, and property price forecasts are being revised down.
But does that mean it’s a bad time to buy?
Here on the southern Mornington Peninsula, particularly around Rosebud, Capel Sound, Tootgarook, Dromana and McCrae, there are some important differences between what’s happening in Melbourne and what we’re seeing locally.
And that’s why we always say: property is local.
Melbourne’s Property Market Is Under Pressure
According to the market research supplied for this week’s update, ANZ Research is forecasting Melbourne house prices to fall approximately 1.7% during 2026, while Domain’s FY2027 outlook is more cautious, projecting a decline of 4%–8% in Melbourne house prices over the financial year to June 2027.
Units are expected to fare somewhat better, with Domain forecasting a smaller decline of 1%–3%.
These are forecasts, not guaranteed outcomes, but they highlight how much buyer sentiment has changed.
Higher interest rates have reduced borrowing capacity, while the ongoing cost of living has made buyers more cautious about taking on larger mortgages.
Some suburbs and property types have experienced considerable weakness, while others have remained more resilient.
The same is true of the Mornington Peninsula.
That’s where areas such as Rosebud, Capel Sound and Tootgarook can become particularly interesting.
These suburbs offer established residential communities, access to beaches, shops, medical facilities and schools, while remaining more accessible than many premium Melbourne and Peninsula locations.
Condition, land size, location, ongoing costs and resale appeal all matter.
Buying well is more important than simply buying cheaply.
Basso Real Estate – Local Knowledge. Strategic Advice. Better Outcomes.
👉 Contact our team today to discuss your property goals or a free market appraisal.
Suite 2, 1401 Point Nepean Road, Rosebud VIC 3939
Phone: (03) 5981 1200
