16/06/2026
RBA holds at 4.35%
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Yesterday’s RBA decision delivered exactly what the market needed. The cash rate has been held at 4.35%, pausing after three consecutive hikes in February, March and May. The statement confirmed financial conditions have tightened, the Board wants to assess the cumulative impact on the economy, and the next meeting is 11 August 2026. Three of the four major banks; CBA, NAB and ANZ, now agree: the next move is a cut, not a hike. CBA is forecasting the first cut in May 2027. NAB expects June 2027. ANZ predicts September 2027. Only Westpac still has two more hikes in its base case for August and September, a forecast that is increasingly isolated.
