04/11/2024
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The Bank of Canada Cautious, But A Rate Cut In June Is Possible
Today, the Bank of Canada held the overnight rate at 5% for the sixth consecutive meeting and pledged to continue normalizing its balance sheet. Governor Macklem confirmed that inflation is moving in the right direction, labour markets are easing, and wage pressures appear to be dissipating. In today's release of the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR), the central bank forecasters lowered their 2024 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 2.8%. However, the Governing Council needs more evidence to be confident that the downtrend in inflation is sustainable.
In contrast, the US CPI data released today for March showed that underlying inflation topped forecasts for the third consecutive month, and the US jobs data also beat estimates. This is in direct contrast to the news of better-than-expected inflation in Canada and the easing of labour markets. The Canadian economy is far more interest-rate sensitive than the US because mortgage terms are far shorter. Over 60% of all outstanding mortgages are up for renewal in the next two to three years, adding to monthly mortgage payments. That process has already begun.
While the Canadian economy slowed at the end of last year, more recent data suggest a bounceback in the first quarter. The Bank revised up its forecast for GDP growth in the first half of 2024 but reduced its economic outlook for next year. The Bank expects inflation to hit its 2% inflation target in 2025.
