01/17/2020
Lately the market in Barrie has really been picking up again. We are seeing more and more multiple offer situations. The number of homes for sale is currently the lowest it has been since the spring of 2017 when average prices went up over 30% between the spring of 2016 and the spring of 2017. Between December 2018 and December 2019 prices within the City of Barrie were up 10% and for the entire year of 2019 compared to the entire year of 2018 prices were up around 4%.
What does this all tell us?
As demand for housing in our area continues to outpace supply, prices are most likely to continue to climb. Add in the factors:
- a strong economy in southern Ontario with lower than average unemployment rates.
- an increasing number of home buyers and renters moving to Barrie and surrounding area for more affordable housing options that are becoming increasingly less available in the GTA.
- new housing starts lower due to high development and construction costs making the supply side of this equation continually fall behind.
- low interest rates and most forecasts calling for this to continue in coming years.
- overall increasing population in Canada and certainly locally. 500,000 in population growth in 2019 in Canada. Add to that a commitment to bring 1,000,000 immigrants in the next three years.
So those are the factors I'm seeing that will drive prices up this year. What are the factors that could slow it down:
- government intervention. This is what took the wind out of the sales in 2017. Still their policies did not address the issue of short supply and the impact was temporary in our area. Also, an unintended consequence has been continually increasing rent prices. The policy is keeping more people in the rental market.
- global or national recession. A long discussion and always difficult to predict.
- increasing interest rates. While this is unlikely currently (notice that 5 year fixed rates are lower than short term variable rates which means that banks are betting on low interest rates as well). It is of course always possible. How the Bank of Canada determines how to move the prime rate depends on a lot of factors and predicting it is also difficult.
So this is my take on the current real estate market in the Barrie area. At a local level we are certainly most likely to continue to see increasing prices in 2020.
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