01/30/2026
What is happening in the real estate market for 2026?
Last week at the CREB Forecast, Mark Parsons from ATB Financial shared a big-picture economic outlook that’s worth paying attention to, not because it’s academic, but because it directly explains what’s happening in our market and why.
Here’s the short version, translated into Realtor language.
1. Alberta is outperforming, structurally
Despite all the noise around tariffs, politics, and global uncertainty, Alberta is holding up better than most provinces. Our economy is less exposed to tariffs, population is still growing, and demand here is being driven by people, not speculation.
This isn’t luck. It’s fundamentals.
2. Population growth is the real story
Alberta was the only province still growing population late last year. People continue to move here primarily from B.C. and Ontario, and the driver is affordability, full stop.
Even after price growth, Alberta remains meaningfully more affordable than other major markets. That gap narrowed, but it didn’t disappear. As long as it exists, migration continues.
For real estate, that means demand is demographic, not hype-driven.
3. This is not a boom, it’s a rebalancing
This doesn’t feel like past Alberta booms because it isn’t one. Oil and gas investment is lower than historical peaks, and growth is coming from diversification, downstream energy, agriculture, manufacturing, and population inflows.
That creates steadier housing demand, fewer extreme swings, and more neighbourhood-by-neighbourhood differences instead of broad market moves.
4. Housing supply improved, but didn’t overshoot
Builders stepped up in a big way. Starts hit record levels and will likely ease, but remain strong. Alberta is still catching up to population growth, not drowning in supply.
This supports a market that cools selectively, not one that collapses.
5. What this means for you, practically
– Out-of-province buyers are not a temporary trend.
– Edmonton and secondary Alberta markets are benefiting as Calgary affordability tightens.
– Buyers waiting for “certainty” may be waiting through continued demand.
– Investors should be thinking stability and long-term fundamentals, not quick flips.
Looking to buy or sell this year please feel free to reach out for a free home evaluation. Shannon McCarthy
CIR Realty Okotoks
