07/01/2026
Here's an interesting one for the feature read for the month! While we're all tired of the back and forth in the Iran conflict, what are the consequences? We've gathered the opinions from what analysts are saying:
After 4 months of on-and-off again hostilities between the U.S. and Iran, plus Israel's direct involvement in this and their own campaigns, there have been some pretty obvious global impacts. Analysts generally agree on numerous results - some that potentially improve regional and global situations, and others that are clearly detrimental:
Potential Positives:
1) Iran's Somewhat Degraded Military Capabilities: Joint military operations by the US and Israel have either damaged or weakened the Iranian navy and air force. According to US military sources over 90% of the Iranian navy has been eliminated. A large number of missile launchers, drone production sites, and air defences have either been damaged or destroyed although estimates are that Iran still holds a vast number of these items capable of short and medium range impacts.
2) Reduced Nuclear Capability: A key target has been Iran's nuclear material and nuclear refining capacity. This has been largely degraded or destroyed, however not eliminated as previously claimed by the US administration.
3) Iranian Proxies Weakened: The conflict has heavily struck Iranian backed militant networks such as Hezbollah and Hamas, weakening their operational capacities and potentially diminishing their regional threat.
3) New Regional Alliances: By expanding the conflict to include Gulf Arab states alongside Israel, the war has accelerated regional security cooperation between these states and the US. Further, even the Israelis provided direct military defensive assistance to the UAE with the deployment and operational assistance of Iron Dome anti-missile batteries directly on Emirati soil. That said, the reliance on the US for regional security partnerships is reportedly under internal scrutiny by some regional countries.
4) Unexpected Assistance: The Israelis provided direct military defensive assistance to the UAE with the deployment and operational assistance of Iron Dome anti-missile batteries directly on Emirati soil. Further, Ukraine signed 10 year defence and security co-operation agreements with Saudi Arabia and Qatar. As well, UAE and Ukraine have agreed to co-operate on defence. While this act has been recognized and appreciated, Israel is also seen as a major provocateur by many in the region due to a number of their aggressive military actions in Lebanon over the last number of months.
5) Oil and Gas Revenue Benefits: Places like the US, Canada, and unfortunately even Russia (although, Russia has seen significantly reduced exports due to numerous Ukrainian attacks on its oil infrastructure); have opportunities generate significant revenues higher commodity prices. For example, every $1 price increase in WTI, means approximately $2 million dollars a day toward Alberta’s economy.
Negatives:
1) Increased Inflation: Prices at the gas pump are up (and down and back up) by as high as 75% in Calgary from the lows seen before the war. Costs of many day to day items continue to go up, even items that may not be directly related to oil and gas. This is largely due to transportation costs. For example, it costs more to fuel farm equipment and transport goods to grocery stores, thus, resulting in higher food costs.
2) Higher Fertilizer Costs: Natural gas is the fundamental building block and primary energy source for nitrogen based fertilizers, it accounts for 70% - 90% of a production facility’s input costs. Therefore, higher natural gas prices lead to higher fertilizer production costs directly effecting farmer’s margins, and, hence, food costs will likely rise.
3) Clothing Cost Increases: Believe it or not, a well known clothing material is linked to oil and gas. Polyester is fundamentally a plastic, meaning it is a direct derivative of fossil fuels. The fibre is synthesized from petroleum crude oil and natural gas through a series of chemical processes.
4) Civilian Casualties: Attacks on urban and other centres have resulted in numerous civilian casualties in Lebanon, Israel, and Iran. Innocent people hurt or killed is a tragedy that can't be understated. Lebanon has suffered over 3,200 deaths and over 9,700 injured. While Iran has experienced about 3,500 deaths and 27,000 wounded. Israel has 26 civilians killed and over 7,700 injured.
5) Widening Conflict: The conflict has widened to include cyber warfare and drone strikes by Iran on neighbouring nations, plus of course attacks on regional US bases and their host nations in the Gulf - such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait.
6) Degraded, Not Defeated Iranian Military: Intelligence assessments indicate Iran retains approximately 70% of its pre-war missile stockpile and access to 30 of its 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retains roughly 1,500 missiles and 200 operational launchers, and while subjected to severe blows to its production sites, Iran’s drone manufacturing has restarted at an accelerated pace as they retained the supply networks, technical expertise, and decentralized production facilities.
7) Growing Humanitarian Crisis: Poor countries with vulnerable populations are experiencing worsening conditions due to the cost or lack of fertilizers for crops, scarcity of cooking fuel and unaffordable fuel for vehicles. Some examples include Sudan, Somalia, Uganda, Ethiopia, Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Cambodia.
8) Massive Cost of War: Figures reveal that the war has cost the US (at the very low end) at least $29 to $40 billion. That doesn't include equipment losses and increased maintenance. Factoring in soaring consumer energy costs, base repairs, long term veteran care, and equipment losses, the total economic and financial burden is estimated to be $630 billion to $1 trillion.
9) Iran's New Assertion of Control of the Strait: Iran has - and is trying to entrench governance of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which could have huge global impact. If successful, they would launch themselves financially beyond reach of any diplomatic or military control measures. This is a direct result of the conflict, as they realized the potential power they could have - and is a problem without a solution at this stage.
It causes you to wonder if things are further ahead or further behind, doesn't it?
