09/05/2026
I’m being asked more and more often whether we have already hit the bottom when it comes to real estate prices in the Vancouver area.
Not pretending to be an analyst, just a few thoughts on the factors that will influence where we end up in terms of prices over the next six months:
- Potentially, the Additional Property Transfer Tax for Foreign Entities (Foreign Buyers Tax), which is currently set to remain in effect until the end of this year, could be cancelled. As of now, there has been no announcement as to whether it will be extended for another year or longer.
If that happens, many people living in the Greater Vancouver Area who earn enough to afford their own home but don't have PR may decide to take advantage of this and purchase their first home. This would increase demand for apartments and townhouses, which would, in turn, drive demand for houses.
At the very least, the market would become more active. And maybe prices would go up a little.
I would expect news about extending or cancelling this tax closer to December this year.
- The pumpkin behind the wheel of the country to our south may, through his tariffs, actually help bring mortgage rates down further.
A couple of days ago, the Bank of Canada once again kept its rate at the same level it reached earlier this year. But if the economy starts slowing down, there is a chance that interest rates on home loans will come down.
Our province, especially Greater Vancouver, is not as dependent on tariffs from our southern neighbour as the eastern parts of Canada are. So those working in the Hi-Tech sector and other industries where job cuts are not directly dependent on trade with the US may be able to take advantage of lower rates and decide that it's time either to buy their first home or sell what they have and move up to something more expensive.
- We still don't know exactly what our government is going to do about purchasing unsold new homes. There was an announcement, but the details are still unknown.
If the government introduces some kind of incentive programs for first-time home buyers, that could also have an impact on the real estate market in Metro Vancouver.
- What should you do if you already have PR and the ability to buy a home, but don't want to end up owning a condo that is worth less a year or two from now?
Summary:
- If you are buying a home for yourself and don't plan to sell it within the next 3–5 years, my recommendation would be to take advantage of this "window of opportunity" while the selection on the market is good, the market is slow, prices are (relatively) low, and mortgages are available at decent rates. Right now, rates are somewhere around 3.49–3.89%, depending on the term and other conditions. Mortgage brokers know this stuff much better than I do.
In the worst-case scenario, prices may drop a little further, but you will be building equity, have the security of knowing that nobody can kick you out of your home, and won't have to make a decision about moving to another rental or buying something under pressure and without enough time to think it through.
If you are buying with the intention of selling in a few years, it may make sense to wait another few months and potentially get a condo at even better terms. In that case, selling it and moving up to something better may be easier.
If you don't have PR yet, I would only consider buying if you have a BC nomination and the property you want to buy has unique characteristics that don't come onto the market very often. On the BC resale market, BC PNP nominees can buy under almost the same conditions as Canadian citizens and PR holders — you just don't get the ~$8K Property Transfer Tax savings available to first-time home buyers who are Canadian citizens or PR holders.
Once again, I failed to make this a short post.
As always, my consultations are free, as are my services for buyers.
Message me or give me a call. I’ll be happy to chat.
Dmytro Ruksha
REALTOR®
Saba Realty Ltd.
604.445.2812
[email protected]
https://ruksha.ca
