01/03/2026
Ontario Real Estate | A Macro View
January 2020 marked the starting point of one of the most aggressive price expansions in Ontario real estate history. By March 2020, with interest rates pushed to historic lows in response to global economic shocks, capital flowed freely into housing. The result was a rapid repricing of assets, driving the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board MLS Home Price Index benchmark from $799,400 to $1,279,800 by February 2022, a 60.1% increase in just over two years.
February 2022 proved to be the inflection point. As inflation surged, interest rates were raised aggressively, shifting affordability dynamics almost overnight. What followed was not a single sharp correction, but a prolonged repricing cycle. From the market peak to December 2025, benchmark values declined 26.4%, settling at $942,300.
By 2025, the market’s character had fully changed. Sales volumes remained historically low, while inventory quietly accumulated. Active listings reached 31,603 in June 2025, the highest level in more than 20 years. Average days on market climbed to 56, and pricing trended consistently downward throughout the year. From January 2025 to December 2025, benchmark prices declined a further 7.4%, underscoring the absence of a meaningful rebound.
Looking ahead, the data suggests continuity rather than reversal. 2026 is likely to resemble 2025, with similar supply-demand imbalances, longer selling timelines, and pricing pressure, conditions that may extend well into 2027. In this phase of the cycle, outcomes are increasingly driven by strategy, pricing discipline, and ex*****on, not momentum.
Data shown reflects Toronto Regional Real Estate Board MLS Home Price Index (HPI) Benchmark Price Performance for the Composite.
The Composite benchmark represents an aggregate of all residential property types, including detached, semi-detached, townhomes, and condominium apartments.
Figures reflect market conditions across the Greater Toronto Area, including Toronto, Durham, York, Peel, and Halton Regions.
Provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Individual property values and outcomes may vary.