03/20/2026
The GTA market remains bifurcated:
Low-rise housing:
Limited supply
Strong end-user demand
Faster recovery
Condos:
Oversupply from 2020-2022 projects
Investor pullback
Longer selling times
This dynamic is consistent with TRREB’s broader data showing detached and townhomes outperforming condo apartments during the current cycle.
1. General Market Advice
This week’s data continues to reinforce the early-stage recovery pattern that has been developing since January.
Several signals are now aligning
Demand indicators:
~The ask-to-sell ratio moved back above 100% to ~1.0018 this week.
~Average days on market fell to ~26 days, down sharply from the January peak near 50 days.
~Weekly sales bars are rising again relative to early-year levels (though early week sales often underreport true demand).
Pricing indicators:
The average sale price sits around $1.2M, rebounding from the January trough near $1.1M and stabilizing in recent weeks.
Supply indicators
Listings remain elevated compared with sales, meaning the market still has inventory available for buyers, but the gap has begun to narrow.
Taken together, the market is transitioning from a buyer-leaning environment towards buyers starting towards buyers acting in the market. This is also ‘normal’ for this time of the year with the days getting longer and weather improving.
The most important signal this week is the ask-to-sell ratio crossing back above 100%. This indicates that some properties are beginning to sell at or slightly above asking again, which historically occurs when demand begins absorbing inventory.
However, this is not yet a full seller’s market. Inventory remains higher than normal, so the recovery is gradual rather than explosive.
2. Advice for Buyers:
Buyers still have opportunities, but the window is slowly narrowing.
Key conditions:
Negotiation leverage still exists
Although the ask-to-sell ratio ticked above 100%, it only recently recovered from a low near 0.963 in January, when buyers had maximum negotiating power.
Many listings remain on the market 25–35 days, meaning patient buyers can still negotiate.
Affordability has improved
TRREB data shows the average GTA price is roughly $1.01M in February, down about 7% year-over-year, which improved affordability.
Interest rates are supportive:
The policy rate environment has stabilized and inflation is trending toward the 2% target, meaning borrowing costs are no longer rising rapidly.
Strategic takeaways -
Buyers should focus on:
~listings sitting longer than 3–4 weeks
~condos and investor units where oversupply still exists
~properties requiring minor cosmetic work
These segments continue to offer the best discounts relative to peak prices.
3. Advice for Sellers:
~Seller conditions are improving, but pricing strategy remains critical.
Key signals:
~Demand is improving
Falling days on market and rising ask-to-sell ratios indicate buyers are re-engaging.
Pricing power is returning gradually but slowly
The market moved from heavy discounts earlier this year back to sales around asking price.
But inventory is still elevated
Sellers who overprice will still struggle because buyers have alternatives.
Strategic takeaway:
The best seller strategy right now is:
~Price slightly below recent comparable sales
~Encourage multiple offers rather than negotiating downward
~Launch listings during the early spring demand surge
Well-priced homes—especially low-rise family homes—are increasingly seeing competitive bidding again.
The content provided is for informational purposes only and is based on information available at the time during which it was created. No recommendations are express or implied either directly or indirectly. Do not rely on this content to make business or financial decisions or decisions otherwise. Always consult with a professional to seek advice relevant to your individual situation. Not intended to solicit contracted clients.
