01/27/2023
Ever wonder about how they come up with weather forecasts? David Phillips, senior climatologist at Environment Canada, said the Farmers’ Almanac’s method of predicting weather is really more like “throwing darts at a dartboard.”
“It’s not science,” he said. “It’s more astrology rather than astronomy, kind of thing. If you take one of the things they base their predictions on—sunspots—well, people have correlated sunspots with everything from church attendance to venereal disease. It’s one of those things people gravitate to in order to explain events using pseudo-science.”
According to Phillips, any kind of accuracy the Farmers’ Almanac may have each year is simply because its predictions are never completely out of left field.
“They know enough about the climate to know that [certain] things are impossible,” he said. “To say that you’re going to get, from Chicago to Montreal, a snowstorm between Christmas and New Year’s—well, they’re probably going to be right.”
“They don’t give specifics where they could really be marked on their accuracy—and in the end, the media tends to always focus on when they get it right rather than when they get it wrong,” Phillips added.
This week I was in Florida to meet with some award winning RE/MAX owners. Weather forecast for Wednesday was 29°C and a 90% chance of rain.
It turned out to be a gorgeous sunny day! When I checked the forecast on the news that morning, the weather guy had it right. He said it was absolutely gorgeous out. But what about the almanac and the subsequent prediction of rain? Climatologists and meteorologists are pretty smart people. They predicted rain!! We need to believe them right? I guess the guy in the streets had it right after all. He was in touch with reality and didn’t let forecasts sway his reporting.
Why is this even important? Who cares if it rained or not? Well here’s the thing.
Economists take historical data and refer back on certain situations to come up with predictions for the real estate market. They’ve recently said the market will crash and burn. The bottom is falling out. Interest rates will hit 8-9% before we see the bottom of the market. People are listening to these economists who must write for the “Real Esfate Almanac” and believing it like gospel. The Realtor that’s in the trenches and telling you what’s actually happening out there right here, right now, has a different view. They’re seeing the return of normal interest rates. They’re seeing the impact of critically low inventory levels. And now they’re seeing the pent up demand come back into the market. There are multiple offers on properties, bidding wars and unconditional offers are back in play. The market is heating up again as consumer confidence flows from the BOC’s announcement that they’re done with rate hikes for now. This is the reality of the market right now. Have a chat with the weather reporter standing out on the street for the real deal on what to expect. Have a chat with the ACTIVE Realtor that’s working in today’s real estate environment for the true picture of how the market is reacting. Economists predict based on hypothetical assumptions based on historical data. Realtors are boots on the ground seeing the changes first hand. Talk to your Realtor about Real Estate!
