10/22/2026
If you only read the headlines this week, you’d think the Canadian housing market is stuck in neutral. CREA has cut its 2026 sales forecast for the third straight quarter. Royal LePage now expects prices to rise just 1% this year, down from 2%. Fixed mortgage rates have been creeping up, and talk of a Bank of Canada rate hike is getting louder.
But look a little closer and a very different picture comes into focus.
Rates are likely staying put
September inflation came in at 3.1%, but almost all of that came from gas prices, which jumped nearly 28% over the past year because of the conflict in the Middle East. Take energy out and inflation sits at 2.2%. The Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures actually dropped to about 1.9%, which is right where the Bank wants them.
Most economists now expect the Bank to hold its 2.25% rate on October 28. CMHC’s chief economist, Mathieu Laberge, doesn’t see any hikes until 2027. With the economy losing 68,300 jobs in September, the Bank has little reason to move.
The market isn’t broken. It’s nervous.
Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper put it plainly: pent-up demand, reasonable rates, lower prices, steady employment and high savings are all in place. What’s missing is confidence. Buyers, especially first-timers, are waiting on the sidelines because of the trade war with the U.S.
That matters, because markets don’t wait for confidence to come back. Prices tend to move before the crowd returns.
Change is coming in January
The foreign buyer ban expires January 1, 2027. National Bank’s chief economist, Stéfane Marion, expects Ottawa to loosen it, at least for new builds. Right now, 28% of newly built condos are unsold, the highest level since the early 1990s. RE/MAX Canada’s president agrees that bringing that investment back could help fund new supply and improve affordability.
Marion also pointed out that Canada is the only country projected to avoid population decline through 2066. That’s a long-term demand story few other markets can match. He expects prices to level off in 2027 and said he’s the most optimistic he’s been in over a decade.
What this means for Realtors
When buyers are frozen, the agents who keep earning are the ones who change the conversation. Many of your past clients are sitting on real equity in their homes. That equity can help them buy a second property: a single-family rental, a duplex, a triplex or a fourplex. It’s one of the most practical ways for an ordinary homeowner to move their financial needle, and you’re the person who can start that conversation.
It applies to you too. A quiet market is one of the best times for agents to become small investors themselves.
What this means for the public
If you’ve been waiting for the “perfect” time, consider this: prices are softer, rates are stable for now, and sellers are more open to negotiation than they’ve been in years. Those conditions rarely last once confidence returns.
At REI Institute, we teach Realtors how to have these conversations and help their clients build wealth through residential real estate. The opportunity is here. The question is who’ll be ready for it.
