Francis Middleton- Sutton Group-Summit Realty Inc. brokerage

10/09/2026

GTA MARKET WATCH | SEPTEMBER 2025 → SEPTEMBER 2026

One year can change a lot in real estate — and the numbers across the GTA tell an important story.

From Vaughan, Toronto, Mississauga, Brampton, Burlington, Halton, Milton, Oakville and surrounding communities, we’re seeing different market conditions from one area to another.

📊 September 2025 vs. September 2026

The year-over-year numbers give us more than just a price comparison. They show us where buyers have gained negotiating power, where sellers need to be strategic, and where opportunities may be emerging.

For buyers, this market can offer something we haven’t seen in years: choice, time to think, and the ability to negotiate.

Yet we continue to see an interesting pattern — buyers are often willing to jump quickly when there are multiple offers, but hesitate when the market is actually working in their favour.

For sellers, this is a market where strategy matters. Pricing based on yesterday’s market can cost you time and leverage. Understanding today’s comparable sales, buyer behaviour and your specific neighbourhood is critical.

And that’s why you can’t simply look at “the GTA market.”

Vaughan is not Toronto.
Toronto is not Mississauga.
Mississauga is not Oakville.
Oakville is not Brampton.

Real estate is local.

10/05/2026

Is it a buyer's market or a seller's market? The honest answer is that it depends on the city and the type of home. I looked at the latest numbers for Mississauga, Brampton, Milton, Oakville, Burlington and Vaughan, and here's what stands out.

Where sellers still have the edge. Burlington and Milton are the tightest. Burlington detached sits at 3.89 months of inventory (MOI) and townhomes at 2.82. Milton townhomes are even hotter at 2.79, with 33 sales against 92 listings. When MOI drops below 4, homes move fast and sellers have leverage.

Where things are balanced. Brampton and Mississauga mostly land between 3.5 and 5 MOI for low-rise homes. Mississauga detached averaged $1.29M, up 0.8%, while Brampton detached eased 1.9% to just over $1M. Brampton semis are the standout at 3.45 MOI.

Where buyers have room to negotiate. Oakville detached is at 7.02 MOI, with prices down 2.7% to $1.74M. Vaughan is the softest market overall, with detached down 4.3%, townhomes down 5.9% and condo apartments down 9.7%. Condos are the story almost everywhere, with MOI above 6 in most cities.

A word of caution. Some big swings, like Burlington condo apartments up 23.6% or Oakville condo townhomes up 67.5%, come from very few sales. A handful of high-priced deals can distort an average, so don't read them as trends.

My advice. Buyers, this is a good time to negotiate, especially on condos and in Oakville and Vaughan. Ask for better terms, not just a lower price. Sellers, price it right from day one. In hot segments like Milton townhomes, good listings still sell quickly, but in higher-inventory segments overpriced homes sit.

Curious what this means for your street or your property type? Reach out and I'll break it down for you.

09/09/2026

09/04/2026

GTA Real Estate Market Update – August 2026

August brought a mixed market across Mississauga, Brampton, Milton, Oakville, Burlington and Vaughan. While buyers continue to have negotiating power in many areas, the numbers show that not all property types are behaving the same way.

Mississauga: Detached homes are sitting around 5.2 months of inventory, while condos have nearly 8 months of supply. Detached prices edged higher, but condos continued to soften.

Brampton: Freehold homes are closer to a balanced market, with detached homes at about 4 months of inventory. Condo properties remain much slower, with condo apartments approaching 10 months of supply.

Milton: Townhouses are one of the stronger segments at just 2.65 months of inventory, while condos continue to face more competition and softer pricing.

Oakville: Detached homes are around 5 months of inventory, while condos sit above 6 months. The market is giving buyers more choice, particularly in the condo segment.

Burlington: Freehold properties remain relatively active, with detached homes at just over 3 months of inventory. Condo apartments, however, are seeing significantly more supply and price pressure.

Vaughan: Detached and traditional townhomes are performing better, while condo townhouses and apartments continue to have considerably more inventory.

What does this mean?

The biggest takeaway is that there isn't one GTA market. Freehold properties are generally holding up better, while condos are giving buyers considerably more negotiating power.

Across the GTA, August sales were down 2.1% year-over-year and the average selling price was $993,410, down 2.7%. At the same time, new listings dropped 14.1%, meaning available inventory is beginning to tighten.

For buyers, there are still opportunities. For sellers, accurate pricing and strong presentation are more important than ever.

The fall market could be very interesting.

09/02/2026

🏦 Bank of Canada Holds at 2.25%

No change from the Bank of Canada today, but that doesn’t mean mortgage rates aren’t moving.

With inflation around 3%, continued trade uncertainty with the U.S., and an economy showing some resilience, the Bank is staying on the sidelines for now.

What does it mean for your mortgage?

➡️ Variable rates: Prime remains at 4.45%, so no change today.

➡️ Fixed rates: Bond yields have been trending higher, putting upward pressure on fixed mortgage rates.

The big takeaway: A Bank of Canada hold does NOT mean all mortgage rates are holding.

We’ll continue watching inflation, the trade war, and bond yields to see where rates go next.

📞 When in doubt, call Mortgage Scout!

08/10/2026

The July numbers show a GTA market that is still favouring buyers in many areas, but the story isn’t the same everywhere.

Mississauga saw average prices fall 10% year-over-year to about $899,000, while sales were down 9%. With homes taking longer to sell, buyers have more negotiating power—particularly for condos.

Toronto was more stable. Sales increased 2% year-over-year, although the average price was still down 3% to roughly $1.01 million. The market appears to be finding some balance, but buyers are still taking their time.

Oakville stands out as one of the stronger markets. Sales increased 10% and the average price rose 6% to approximately $1.41 million. That said, homes are taking longer to sell, suggesting buyers are still being selective.

Brampton and Vaughan are showing a different trend. Sales increased in Brampton (+14%) and Vaughan (+2%), but prices declined 3% and 9%, respectively. More sales at lower prices suggests sellers are adjusting to current market conditions.

Meanwhile, Burlington, Milton and Halton Hills continue to see softer conditions. Burlington sales dropped 10%, Milton fell 19%, and prices were down 5–8% across these markets.

What does this mean?

The GTA market isn't moving in one direction. Buyers have more choice and negotiating power than they did during the peak market years, while sellers need to price realistically and be prepared for longer selling times.

For buyers, this can create opportunities—especially where prices have adjusted significantly. For sellers, proper pricing and presentation are more important than ever.

The key takeaway: July's market is less about “is it a buyer's or seller's market?” and more about understanding the specific neighbourhood and property type you're dealing with.

08/05/2026

July 2026 GTA Real Estate Market Update

July continued to favor buyers across most GTA markets, with inventory remaining elevated and many home prices softening. While there are still pockets of strength, buyers generally have more selection, more negotiating power, and less pressure to compete.

Detached homes in Mississauga, Brampton, Milton, Oakville, and Vaughan all remained in balanced to buyer's market territory, with prices declining in most areas. Burlington stood out as the strongest detached market, sitting close to a seller's market with just 2.6 months of inventory.

Townhomes and condos continue to offer the best opportunities for buyers. Condo apartments saw the highest inventory levels in nearly every city, including Mississauga (7.23 MOI), Brampton (9.59), Milton (5.63), Oakville (5.89), Burlington (5.17), and Vaughan (6.42). Higher inventory means buyers have more choice and greater negotiating leverage.

Not every market moved in the same direction. Some segments, like Oakville detached homes and Vaughan condo townhouses, experienced price increases despite higher inventory. This shows that desirable homes, priced correctly, are still attracting buyers.

What This Means

For Buyers:
Now is a great time to shop. More listings, fewer bidding wars, and increased negotiating power create opportunities that haven't been available in years.

For Sellers:
Pricing your home correctly is more important than ever. Buyers have options, so homes that are well-presented and competitively priced continue to sell, while overpriced listings often sit on the market.

Overall, July's numbers show a market that is becoming more balanced, but conditions vary by city and property type. Understanding your local market is key before making a move.

Thinking about buying or selling? Reach out for a personalized market analysis for your neighbourhood.

07/08/2026

June 2026 GTA Real Estate Market Update

June brought a more balanced real estate market across much of the GTA. While sales increased in many cities, home prices remained flat or declined slightly, giving buyers more options and stronger negotiating power.

Toronto, Mississauga, Brampton, Burlington, Oakville, and Vaughan all saw higher sales compared to last year, showing renewed buyer confidence. Oakville and Burlington were the only markets to post modest price increases, while Brampton, Milton, Halton Hills, Vaughan, and Toronto experienced price declines ranging from 3% to 7%.

Overall, inventory remains healthy, meaning buyers have more choice than they've had in recent years. For sellers, properly pricing your home is more important than ever, as buyers are taking their time and comparing available properties before making offers.

Whether you're buying your first home, upgrading, downsizing, or investing, today's market offers opportunities for both buyers and sellers. Understanding what's happening in your local neighbourhood is the key to making the right move.

Thinking about buying or selling? Let's talk about what these market trends mean for your home and your goals.

07/06/2026

June 2026 Months of Inventory: What It Means for Buyers and Sellers

June brought a mixed real estate market across the GTA. Inventory remains elevated in many areas, giving buyers more choice, while sales activity continues to vary depending on property type and location. The result is a market that's becoming more balanced, with pricing trends differing from city to city.

Mississauga saw inventory rise slightly, especially for detached homes and condos. Detached home prices jumped over 8% month-over-month, while condos and condo apartments continued to soften. Semi-detached homes remained the strongest segment with just 2.43 months of inventory.

Brampton became slightly more competitive as detached inventory dropped from 4.74 to 4.11 months. Detached prices increased modestly, but most other housing types experienced small price declines. Condo apartments also became more balanced, with inventory falling to just over five months.

Milton remained one of the stronger markets for ground-oriented homes. Semi-detached properties had only 1.72 months of inventory and a 58% absorption rate, showing strong buyer demand. Condos, however, continued to struggle with 13 months of inventory.

Oakville continued to favour buyers despite detached inventory remaining relatively balanced at 3.6 months. Most housing types experienced price declines in June, with detached and townhomes seeing the largest drops. Condo townhouses were the exception, posting strong price gains and the highest absorption rate in the city.

Burlington stood out as one of the strongest markets this month. Detached homes dropped to just over two months of inventory with nearly half of all listings selling. While detached prices eased from May's surge, demand remained healthy. Condo apartments also improved as inventory dipped below five months.

Vaughan remained balanced overall. Detached homes saw modest price growth while townhouses rebounded with a 3% monthly increase. Condo apartments improved significantly, with inventory falling below five months and sales picking up, although condo townhouses continued to face slower demand.

Overall, June shows buyers still have options, but well-priced homes continue to attract attention quickly. Sellers need to price strategically, while buyers can take advantage of increased selection and improved negotiating power in many markets.

06/10/2026

🚨 The Bank of Canada just held rates at 2.25%, leaving the prime lending rate at 4.45%.

So... why aren't rates coming down if the economy is slowing?

The answer may be sitting at your local gas station. ⛽

Inflation jumped back up to 2.4%, driven largely by a massive spike in energy prices. Gas prices surged more than 20% in a single month, creating fresh concerns that inflation could stick around longer than expected.

At the same time:

📈 Inflation is moving higher
📉 Consumer spending is slowing
🌎 Global uncertainty remains elevated
🏦 The Bank of Canada is stuck between supporting growth and fighting inflation

For now, they've chosen to wait.

What does that mean for Canadians?

✅ Variable-rate borrowers avoid another increase
✅ Borrowing costs remain stable for now
⚠️ Fixed rates are still being influenced by bond markets and global economic conditions

The real question isn't what happened today.

It's what happens next.

If inflation cools and economic growth weakens, rate cuts could return to the conversation. If energy prices remain elevated, the Bank may stay on the sidelines longer than many borrowers hoped.

What do you think the Bank's next move will be? 👇

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