10/29/2025
Bank of Canada cuts to 2.25%, rates ‘about the right’ level
The Bank of Canada cut interest rates as it sees damage from U.S. tariffs persisting, but signalled that borrowing costs are roughly at the right place as long as its forecasts materialize.
Officials led by Governor Tiff Macklem lowered the benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis points for a second consecutive meeting on Wednesday, bringing the policy rate to 2.25%, the lowest since July 2022.
The central bank also slashed growth projections, painting a downbeat picture of the economy. In prepared remarks, Macklem called the trade conflict with the US a “structural transition” that has “diminished Canada’s economic prospects.”
But the central bank pushed back on expectations of further easing, saying it sees the policy rate “at about the right level keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of adjustment.” That depends on inflation and economic activity evolving in line with its projections.
“If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond,” the bank said.
The Canadian dollar extended gains after the decision, trading at $1.3915 per U.S. dollar, its strongest level since Oct. 1. It is a third day of gains for the loonie. Yields on Canadian government debt rose across the curve. Traders in overnight swaps lowered expectations for a December rate cut.
Policymakers also reiterated the supply shock posed by the trade dispute limits their ability to intervene and stimulate growth.
“The structural damage caused by the trade conflict reduces the capacity of the economy and adds costs. This limits the role that monetary policy can play to boost demand while maintaining low inflation.”
Macklem also acknowledged that the bank’s preferred core inflation metrics were “sticky” around 3%, but reiterated “upward momentum has dissipated” and repeated the bank sees a broader suite of measures pointing to underlying price pressures around 2.5%.
The bank sees the economy in excess supply over the forecast horizon. Policymakers also cut their outlook for growth to 0.75% for the second half of 2025. In his remarks, Macklem said the bank sees the economy 1.5% smaller by the end of 2026 compared with the forecast in January.