10/19/2026
๐ Canada's inflation ticked up to 3.1% in September (from 3.0% in August). Economists expected 3.2%, so it came in a little cooler than forecast ๐
โฝ The headline
๐น Gas prices were up 27.8% from a year ago
๐น Take gas out and inflation was 2.2%, down from 2.4%
๐น The Bank of Canada's favourite core measures both eased: CPI-trim 1.8%, CPI-median 1.9%
๐ What drove it
๐ฅ Fuel oil +57.8%, which hit Atlantic Canada hardest
๐ Rent +2.8% (same pace as August), and shelter overall +1.8%
๐ฅฆ Groceries +1.7%, the smallest yearly rise since May 2024
๐ฆ Mortgage interest costs โ0.2% from a year ago
๐ Ontario had the lowest rate of any province at 2.5%. P.E.I. (5.7%) and Nova Scotia (5.6%) were the highest
โ๏ธ The mortgage angle
This was the Bank's last inflation report before its Oct 28 decision. As of Oct 19, markets were pricing about a 78% chance of a hold and 22% odds of a hike (BankofCanadaOdds.com). These are market odds, not a prediction or a guarantee, and the Bank decides independently.
๐ Renewing or on a variable rate? DM me RATE and we'll go through your options together ๐ฌ
๐ Sources: Statistics Canada, The Daily, Oct 19, 2026; Reuters poll (LSEG) via The Canadian Press, Oct 16, 2026; BankofCanadaOdds.com, Oct 19, 2026. Educational only, not a rate quote or advice.
Rozil Redhu,
Mortgage Agent Level 2
Clover Mortgage | FSRA #13168
647-707-6945
.ca