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10/28/2026

The Bank of Canada just raised rates to 2.5%. First hike in three years.

The reason is oil. The war in the Middle East pushed gas prices up, and inflation has sat around 3% since April.

Here's my problem. A rate hike in Ottawa doesn't refine one more barrel of oil. It doesn't change what you pay at the pump. What it does change is the cost of every mortgage renewal and business loan in this country, in an economy already absorbing new U.S. tariffs.

The Bank's answer is that it isn't targeting gas prices. It's trying to stop energy costs from spreading into everything else. That risk is real. I just think hiking into a slowing economy is the wrong trade, and some economists called this premature with core inflation still subdued.

If you have a renewal coming in the next 12 to 18 months, stress-test it now. The Bank says more hikes may be needed.

Hike, hold, or cut. What would you have done?



Opinion only. Not financial or investment advice.

10/27/2026

Hamilton and Kitchener-Waterloo are next-door markets moving in opposite directions. Yardi's Q2 data has KW new-lease rents down 4.5%, the weakest in Canada, while Hamilton's are up 1.3%.

Hamilton's overall vacancy is 5.2%, above the national average. But bachelor vacancy is 14% while two-bedrooms sit at 3.7% with new leases up 2.2%.

The headline vacancy number hides the story. Unit mix is the underwriting.



Source: Yardi Canadian National Multifamily Report, Q3 2026 (data as of Q2 2026), Paul Fiorilla

10/20/2026

Small-scale infill went from 0.62% of Toronto's housing starts in 2023 to 6.45% in 2025, per CMHC.

Zoning reforms and conversions of existing homes are part of the story. But it's a share of a small base, and CMHC says Ontario's uptake has been slower.

The bigger infill category is still nine units or more, at 63% of national starts.



Source: CMHC analysis, as reported by Storeys (Zakiya Kassam), Sep. 24, 2026

10/19/2026

Canada's September CPI came in at 3.1%, versus 3.2% expected and 3.0% in August. Gasoline is up 27.8% year over year, and inflation excluding gasoline was 2.2%.

Core measures were a tick below forecast, with CPI-trim at 1.8% and CPI-median at 1.9%. Rent rose 0.5% on the month, leaving the annual rate at 2.8%, which CIBC called "surprisingly firm."

The Bank of Canada decides October 28, with CIBC seeing little rush to hike and Governor Macklem saying the Bank is prepared to raise rates if necessary.



Source: Statistics Canada CPI (Sep. 2026), as reported by CIBC Economics (Andrew Grantham) and The Canadian Press, Oct. 19, 2026

10/15/2026

Developer-held condo inventory hit a record 5,001 units, up 68% year over year, and bulk buyers are stepping in.

High Art Capital is targeting at least $1.3B to convert condo blocks into rentals, with up to $300M in mezzanine debt committed by Building Ontario Fund. The trade-off is that 30% of the units are tagged affordable for life.

The 30%+ discount is one lawyer's estimate, not a reported average. How these scattered units get managed, and what happens to warranty coverage on resale, is where the risk sits.



Source: RENX, Steve McLean, "Inside the bulk condo buying boom in Canada's largest markets," Sep. 8, 2026

10/15/2026

Rents Falling, Starts Falling Faster: Toronto Divergence, LTB Rule Changes, and the Cyreg Investigation

Addy Saeed and Ribhu Rampersad review diverging Canadian real estate signals: national rents fell 4.8% YoY (23 straight months), while Toronto is down just 1.4% and Toronto purpose-built 2–3 bedrooms are up. They flag trade-policy uncertainty, Toronto resale softness amid sharply lower new listings, and CMHC data showing borrowers shifting to shorter/variable terms with 35% reporting renewal pressure and 25% regrets. They detail a liquidity/operational crisis at Ontario condo property manager Cyreg/SIREG (about 1,800 units) after missed rent distributions on Sept 18 and a CAMRO investigation, highlighting operator risk across condo title, REIT, and syndicate structures. They explain LTB/RTA changes (N12 notice/compensation, N4 shorter timelines, tighter N13 obligations), summarize uneven GTA development-charge relief, note record unsold GTA developer condo inventory and institutional conversion-to-rental buys, compare city-by-city capital markets, and conclude CMHC warns the long-term risk is an ownership supply shortfall despite near-term rental softness.

00:00 Market Setup and Agenda00:48 Rents Falling Not Toronto03:11 Mortgage Renewals and Term Risk04:06 Ontario Property Manager Crisis10:35 LTB Rule Changes Explained13:27 Development Charge Relief Map15:30 Distressed Condos to Rentals16:41 CAIC Panel City by City20:26 CMHC Supply Gap Warning23:18 Wrap Up and Disclosures

About Your Hosts: Addy Saeed: With over 20 years of experience in the real estate industry, I've navigated through the complexities of property investment, development, and management. My goal is to demystify real estate investing for our listeners.
Web Links Skool Community: https://www.skool.com/learn-invest-manage-3225/aboutGet access to all our tools at learninvestmanage.com

🍁 On this National Day for Truth and Reconciliation in Canada, let's stand together in unity and compassion. May we lear...
09/30/2026

🍁 On this National Day for Truth and Reconciliation in Canada, let's stand together in unity and compassion. May we learn, grow, and strive for a future filled with understanding and respect. Your hearts make a difference. 💙🤝

09/28/2026

A huge Ontario financing window closes Wednesday (September 30th).

Until September 30th, CMHC's MLI Select lets projects qualify under the OLD energy standards or the new 2020 NECB rules. After Wednesday: the tougher new code only. Fewer points. Smaller discounts.

The math is real. 70 points unlocks 45-year amortization. 100 points gets 50 years plus a 30% premium discount. A Grimsby developer just closed a 90-unit purpose-built rental at 95% loan-to-cost.

Everyone complains about rates. The developers cashing in aren't complaining.

For the full playbook — source, underwrite, capitalize, manage, exit, learn — go to heyaddy.com

09/25/2026

That viral reel promising $7,500 a month in cash flow? The math is fake.

$1.1 million building. 20% down. $11,000 in rent. And somehow only $3,500 in expenses — mortgage, taxes, insurance, everything.

Do the math. It doesn't survive contact with reality.

No vacancy allowance. No maintenance. No management fees. No CapEx reserve. No land transfer tax. And this is Ontario — the 2026 rent guideline is 2.1%. Your costs aren't capped. Your income is.

The reel isn't underwriting. It's a funnel. You're not being shown a deal — you're being sold one.

Real cash flow survives a spreadsheet. It survives a bad tenant, a dead boiler, and a rate hold.

Here's my rule: if the numbers only work in the video, walk away.

Want deals analyzed with real math, not reel math? Go to bfsto.com. Every number verified. No fairy tales.

09/23/2026

A property manager overseeing roughly 1,800 rental condo units across Ontario just told owners their rent payments are no longer guaranteed.

Many of those owners bought in for a "hands-off" experience. Some are now visiting their units for the first time to find out who their tenants are.

The takeaway isn't about one company. When the operator holds the tenant relationship, the cash flow and the information, your real exposure is to the operator, not just the asset.

Source: CBC News, Andrew Lupton, Sep 23, 2026

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