07/28/2026
GTHA new condo sales increased 52% year over year in Q2 2026.
But serious investors should look well beyond the headline...
Only 702 new condos were sold during the quarter, and much of that activity came from completed inventory rather than traditional pre-construction sales. (elimination of HST and bulk investor buying helped pull the market up from its 35-year lows)
The numbers underneath tell the more important story:
↳ Only 50 pre-construction units were sold, down 80% year over year.
↳ No new condo projects launched during the quarter.
↳ Construction started on just 448 units.
↳ Another 1,022 units were cancelled.
↳ The future pipeline declined to 48,710 units, down 37% from last year.
For investors, this creates an unusual market dynamic.
Today, there is considerable resale and completed-inventory supply. Buyers have choice, negotiating leverage, and access to pricing that would have been difficult to secure several years ago.
At the same time, the pipeline of future supply is contracting rapidly.
That does not mean every condo is a good investment.
Many properties still fail the test once location, maintenance fees, financing costs, rent potential, layout efficiency and future competition are considered.
→ But selective investors now have an opportunity to purchase assets at a time when sentiment remains weak - while the conditions for a future supply shortage are quietly developing.
The strategy is not to speculate on a quick recovery.
It is to acquire the right property at the right basis, with manageable carrying costs and a long enough investment horizon for the supply story to unfold.
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The condo market remains challenging. But historically, the best investment opportunities rarely appear when confidence is high, and the outlook feels obvious.
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Nikola Petkovic – 𝗕𝘂𝗶𝗹𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁, 𝗗𝗲𝗹𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝘂𝗹𝘁𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝗘𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲. 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝘂𝘆, 𝘀𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝗼𝗿 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁? 𝗦𝗹𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝗺𝘆 𝗗𝗠 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝗾𝘂𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀.
Disclaimer: This content is intended for informative purposes and engaging discussions. While I strive for accuracy, I am not liable for any actions taken based on the information provided herein. Real estate markets are dynamic, and economic conditions may change over time. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a licensed real estate professional, financial advisor, or mortgage specialist before making any investment decisions.
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© 2026 Nikola Petkovic
Right At Home Realty, Brokerage
Data source: Urbanation Inc.