09/21/2026
If you’re waiting for mortgage rates to keep dropping before buying a home, there’s something you should know.
Fixed mortgage rates don’t move directly with the Bank of Canada’s policy rate.
Here’s what’s happening 👇
📈 Bond yields have been moving higher
Fixed mortgage rates in Canada are heavily influenced by Government of Canada bond yields—especially the 5-year yield.
When those yields rise, lenders can face pressure to increase fixed mortgage rates.
🏦 So what about the Bank of Canada?
Even if the Bank of Canada holds or eventually lowers its policy rate, that doesn’t guarantee fixed mortgage rates will fall at the same time.
Variable rates are more directly tied to the Bank of Canada’s policy rate.
Fixed rates are driven much more by the bond market and expectations about inflation and the economy.
🏠 Why does this matter for buyers?
If you’re sitting on the sidelines waiting for a significantly lower fixed rate, the market doesn’t necessarily move in a straight line.
Rates can move higher again—even without a Bank of Canada rate hike.
And there’s another side to this…
If rates eventually fall enough to bring more buyers back into the market, you could end up trading:
A lower mortgage rate
for
More competition for the same home.
That’s why I wouldn’t make a home-buying decision based on trying to perfectly time interest rates.
Focus on the payment you can comfortably afford, the price you’re paying, and whether the home makes sense for you long term.