Geoff Cowling, Realtor

Geoff Cowling, Realtor Helping clients make good real estate decisions since 1986. And, in today's competitive market, timing is everything.

I have been helping clients buy and sell both residential and commercial properties in and around the Penticton area... in all kinds of market conditions. Much of my business involves repeat clients, and through a word-of-mouth recommendations. You will always feel well informed, making your decisions in a pressure-free environment, that's a promise.

21-250 Strayhorse Road | $579,000 | MLS® 10302397Wow, this checks ALL the boxes! Ski in, ski out, right in the village, ...
02/23/2024

21-250 Strayhorse Road | $579,000 | MLS® 10302397
Wow, this checks ALL the boxes! Ski in, ski out, right in the village, only 100 steps to the lifts. Top floor, corner unit with tons of windows and natural light. 2 bedrooms plus den, 2 full 4 piece bathrooms. Fantastic open layout, 9 foot ceilings. Generous great room boasts an entertainer kitchen with island breakfast bar, plus a big dining area. Gas floor to ceiling river rock fireplace. Hard surface flooring in the living areas, carpet in the bedrooms and den. New WashTower in suite laundry. Wood trims throughout, radiant in floor heating. Wrap around deck with newer 4 person hot tub. Heated tandem garage offers parking for 2 cars, or toys, measures 10.5 feet wide by 41 feet long. 2003 build, gently lived in only part of the year, in great shape. Turn key, with quality furnishings. With the pull out bed, sleeps 8 comfortably. Kids and pets OK, and short term rentals are OK at Apex. Sharp price with low strata fee at $343 monthly. Grab life by the poles, the hills are beckoning!

07/12/2023

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement - July 12, 2023

The Bank of Canada raised its overnight rate by 25 basis points to 5 per cent this morning. In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that the Canadian economy has been stronger than expected but is expected slow as higher interest rate work their way through the economy. On inflation, the Bank cited the recent easing of inflation to 3.4 per cent but also noted that core inflation continues to run a at 3 to 4 per cent pace and has been more persistent than anticipated. The Bank now forecasts a return to its 2 per cent target in mid-2025 rather than in 2024.

While inflation has come down significantly in the past year, the economy seems somewhat impervious to the Bank's efforts to slow it down. The labour market continues to add jobs at a robust pace, consumer spending was brisk during the first quarter and the housing market remains unexpectedly strong. Although the impact of rate increases can take time to be felt, we should be seeing some signs of a slowing economy emerge relatively soon. However, the likelihood of an impending recession and a related fall in interest rates now seem to fading, meaning homebuyers and homeowners may need to wait until next year for any mortgage relief. Indeed, 5-year bond yields are now near 4 per cent for the first time since 2007 which has driven 5-year fixed mortgage rates to their highest point this year. The Bank's statement suggests it may be on pause at 5 per cent, though further rate increases could be on the horizon if the economy continues to out-perform expectations.

06/07/2023

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement - June 7, 2023

The Bank of Canada raised its overnight policy rate this morning by 25 basis points to 4.75 per cent. In its statement accompanying the decision, the bank noted that the Canadian economy was stronger than expected in the first quarter and spending in interest rates sensitive sectors, like the housing market, has picked up. On inflation, the Bank continues to expect CPI inflation to ease to 3 per cent by summer, however, monthly inflation continues to trend about two times higher than its 2 per cent target, a circumstance the Bank fears could become persistent without immediate action.

After signalling a pause in its monetary tightening just a few months ago, the Bank of Canada has already changed course. While inflation has come down significantly, core inflation has been stubbornly trending around 4 per cent, and with home prices already recovering across the country, inflationary pressures are rising. In the Bank's estimation, interest rates will need to move higher to slow the economy and bring inflation back to its 2 per cent target. The Bank will likely raise its overnight rate at least once more to 5 per cent. Those expectations are already being priced into 5-year Canadian bond yields, which rose to their highest level since October 2022 following the rate decision. That increase will prompt mortgage lenders to follow suit, likely bringing 5-year fixed mortgage rates back to above 5.5 per cent.

10/29/2022

Canadian Monthly Economic Growth (August 2022) - October 28, 2022

Canadian GDP edged up by 0.1 per cent in August, following similar increases in June and July. Growth in services-producing industries (+0.3 per cent) offset declines in goods-producing industries (-0.3 per cent) as GDP grew in 14 of 20 subsectors. Canadian real GDP is roughly 2.6 per cent above its pre-pandemic, February 2020 level. Preliminary estimates suggest that output in the Canadian economy grew again by 0.1 per cent in September. GDP from the offices of real estate agents and brokers dropped 2.1 per cent in August, the sixth consecutive decline, as rising interest rates continued to restrain home sales.

GDP growth in recent months, though still positive, is showing signs of slowing. We are currently tracking Q3 real GDP growth at just 1.5 per cent, or about half the rate realized over the first half of 2022. That slowdown will likely continue as the Bank continues its tightening cycle, particularly in interest rate sensitive sectors like housing. The Bank raised its overnight rate in October to 3.75 per cent and the final destination for the overnight rate may be around 4 per cent or above. However, with the rate now higher than the bank's estimate of the neutral rate, meaning monetary policy is no longer stimulative, increases in the overnight rate are expected to slow in subsequent announcements.

09/20/2022

Canadian Inflation (August 2022) - September 20, 2022

Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 7 per cent on a year-over-year basis in August, down from 7.6 per cent last month. This was the second consecutive month of decelerating price growth driven primarily by declining gasoline prices. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 6.3 per cent year over year in August, down from 6.6 per cent in July. This reduced pace of price appreciation was driven by slowing increases in the price of transportation (+10.3 per cent) and shelter (+6.6 per cent), although grocery prices rose quickly (+11.9 per cent). Month-over-month, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, prices were up 0.1 per cent, the slowest rate since December 2020. In BC, consumer prices rose 7.3 per cent year-over-year, down from 8 per cent last month. Average hourly wages grew 5.4 per cent year-over-year in August, indicating a decline in purchasing power.

August's CPI numbers continued to provide encouraging signs that inflation may be slowing. The latest data show declines not just driven by falling gas prices, but a softening in the rate of appreciation in core inflation including transport and shelter. However, markets will want to see sustained declines in the rate of inflation over the next several months before mortgage rates decline significantly. Bond yields are continuing to trend upwards, meaning that markets are still expecting an aggressive Bank of Canada singularly focused on bringing inflation back to its 2 per cent target.

07/22/2022

Canadian Retail Sales (May 2022) - July 22, 2022

Canadian seasonally-adjusted retail sales increased 2.2 per cent in May, hitting $62.2 billion. Sales grew in 8 of 11 subsectors, but were led by higher sales at gasoline stations and motor vehicle and parts dealers (+9.2 and +3.3 per cent respectively). Core retail sales, which strips out gasoline and motor vehicle and parts dealers, increased 0.6 per cent in May. In volume terms, sales were up 0.4 per cent.

In BC, seasonally-adjusted sales rose 1.3 per cent in May. Compared to the same month last year, retail sales were up 3 per cent in the province. In the Greater Vancouver region, sales rose 0.8 per cent month-over-month and were up 4.5 per cent year-over-year.

In May, Canadian e-commerce sales rose 6.5 per cent to 3.5 billion, corresponding to 4.9 per cent of retail sales. This percentage remains elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels, but is lower than during core months of the pandemic in 2020 and 2021.

07/20/2022

Canadian Inflation (June 2022) - July 20, 2022

Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 8.1 per cent on a year-over-year basis in June, up from 7.7 per cent last month. This was the fastest growth rate since January 1983. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 6.5 per cent year over year in June. Month-over-month, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, prices were up 0.6 per cent, down from 1.1 per cent last month. In BC, consumer prices rose 7.9 per cent year-over-year, down from 8.1 per cent last month. Average hourly wages grew 5.2 per cent year-over-year in June, indicating a decline in purchasing power.

While June's CPI brought some encouraging early signs that inflation is peaking, we will need to see a sustained decline in the rate of inflation over the next several months to see any relief on mortgage rates. For now, markets are still expecting an aggressive Bank of Canada, singularly focused on bringing inflation back to its 2 per cent target.

07/06/2022

Canadian Monthly Economic Growth (April 2022) - June 30, 2022

Canadian GDP rose 0.3 per cent in April, led by growth in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas sector. Goods-producing sectors rose 0.9 per cent while services-producing industries were up 0.1 per cent. Canadian real GDP is roughly 2.2 per cent above its pre-pandemic, February 2020 level. Preliminary estimates suggest that output in the Canadian economy shrank 0.2 per cent in May.

The Canadian economy continues to post relatively strong GDP growth numbers, although preliminary estimates are for a small contraction in May. The Bank of Canada has noted that the slack in the Canadian economy is absorbed, which is partly why it has hiked rates from 0.25 in March to 1.5 per cent currently. Amid continuing GDP growth and high inflation, the expectation is that the bank will again raise rates at its upcoming July 13th announcement by an outsized 0.75 per cent, following the US Fed. Our view is that the bank will continue quarterly rate hikes until the overnight policy rate reaches 2 to 3 per cent, roughly in line with the estimate of the neutral rate of interest.

05/13/2022

BC Home Sales Trending Toward Normal Activity

Vancouver, BC – May 12, 2022. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 8,939 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in April 2022, a decrease of 34.9 per cent from a record April 2021. The average MLS® residential price in BC was $1.065 million, a 12.9 per cent increase from $943,765 recorded in April 2021. Total sales dollar volume was $9.5 billion, a 26.5 per cent decline from the same time last year.

“Canadian mortgages have sharply increased, surpassing 4 per cent for the first time in a decade,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “With interest rates rising, demand across BC is now on a path to normalizing. However, given existing levels of supply, markets conditions remain tight.”

Provincial active listings were 7.5 per cent lower than this time last year, though listings are starting to accumulate in some markets as demand fades. However, it will likely take a year or more for the supply of listings to return to balanced market levels.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 10.7 per cent to $38.4 billion, compared with the same period in 2021. Residential unit sales were down 24.2 per cent to 35,618 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 17.8 per cent to $1.078 million.

05/09/2022

Canadian Employment (April 2022) - May 6, 2022

After growing in February and March to a record level, Canadian employment was little changed in April at 19,601k. The labour market is tight, with the Canadian unemployment rate declining by 0.1 to 5.2 per cent, the lowest rate on record since comparable data became available in 1976. The total hours worked fell 1.9 per cent in April while average hourly wages were up 3.3 per cent on a year-over-year basis, similar to March and February. Wage gains are below the inflation rate, however, which clocked in at 6.7 per cent year-over-year in the most-recent data. The employment rate held steady at 61.9 per cent.

Employment in BC was largely unchanged in April at 2,736k. Metro Vancouver's employment growth was also largely flat at -0.2 per cent month over month. The unemployment rate rose in April for a second month in a row, reaching 5.4 per cent and surpassing Canada's rate for the first time since mid-2020.

04/22/2022

Canadian Retail Sales (February 2022) - April 22, 2022

Canadian seasonally-adjusted retail sales rose 0.1 per cent to $59.9 billion in February. Despite declining sales at sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers (-5.1 per cent), higher sales at clothing and clothing accessories stores (+15.1 per cent) and gasoline stations (+6.2 per cent) drove the total upwards. Core retail sales, which strips out gasoline and motor vehicle and parts dealers, increased 1.4 per cent in February. In volume terms, sales were down 0.4 per cent.

In BC, seasonally-adjusted sales declined 0.9 per cent in February. Compared to the same month last year, retail sales were up 0.2 per cent in the province. In the Greater Vancouver region, sales fell 0.7 per cent month-over-month and were up 6 per cent year-over-year.

In February, Canadian e-commerce sales declined 16 per cent to 2.6 billion. As a result, e-commerce decreased from 6.2 per cent of total retail sales in January to 5.3 per cent in February. This percentage remains elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels.

04/20/2022

Canadian Inflation (March 2022) - April 20, 2022

Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 6.7% on a year-over-year basis in March, up from 5.7% in February. This was the largest gain since January 1991 (+6.7%). According to Statistics Canada, price rises were broad-based, with groceries up 8.7% year over year, gasoline up 39.8%, durable goods up 7.3%, restaurants up 5.4%, and shelter costs up 6.8%. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 5.5% year over year in March. On a monthly basis, prices were up 1.4%, following an increase of 1% in February. In BC, consumer prices rose 6.0% year-over-year.

With inflation stubbornly high through the first quarter of the year and unemployment in Canada hitting a record low, the Bank of Canada is now planning to bring its policy rate back to a neutral level, between 1.75 and 2.75 per cent, much faster than previously anticipated. We expect the Bank will continue to tighten until there is clear evidence that inflation and inflation expectations are moderating back to normal levels. This more aggressive policy stance has already been priced into 5-year fixed mortgage rates, which are now on a path to surpassing 4 per cent for the first time in a decade.

Address

484 Main Street
Penticton, BC
V2A5C5

Telephone

+12504907272

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