Joshua Noble Realty

07/22/2022

New listings piled in for June and are staying strong through July as well!

In June 2022, the number of new listings in Canada was up by 10% on a year-over-year basis 👇

07/13/2022

Bank of Canada surprised the market by raising their target interest rate by a full 1.00%

This is the largest rate hike of this cycle so far and coincides with some massive new inflation data.

As I've been describing for months now this will have large impacts on the potential buyers borrowing capacity. I fully expect the recent home price declines to continue in this environment of more expensive credit.

I have some data for the Halton Hills region of Southern Ontario to show the point of what is happening. Take a look at the differences between the year over year numbers and the month over month numbers.

This is incredibly confusing for the public because some articles say that home prices are up say +10% and they are referring to the year over year prices. However average prices month over month are dropping quickly due to these recent and ongoing rare increases.

The real question is how high will rates ultimately go, how fast will they get there and for how long?

If you have any questions about my forecasts or how to best proceed with a real estate transaction in these conditions you can call or text me at 647-201-1132 or shoot me an email at [email protected]

06/30/2022

Calm before the storm Or The start of a bottom?

Hi Folks, Joshua Noble your Southern Ontario Real estate specialist here to give market insights and perspective for the last week of July.

This week has seen a noticeable slow down in new listings compared to the week prior, which is to be expected with the Canada Day long weekend upon us. A time when many Canadians want to get out and enjoy the summer.

This also marks the end of the first half of 2022, one of the worst starts for the year in bond market history and among the worst for stock market performance in history.

So it will be interesting to continue to watch the pace of new listings entering the market, to see if they immediately begin slowing down from the June highs or stay elevated as sellers try getting out of this market.

Regardless of how fast new listings dry up the financial post and superbank JPMorgan say a 0.75% rate hike is a "near certainty" and that 1.00% rate hike is "on the table" which would certainly lead to increased cost of borrowing for would-be buyers in this market.

Rental data that I'm watching is indicating a slowing of growth in the monthly rental rates from 2020-2021 levels which saw drastic increases in rent prices. This indicates to me that renters are no longer signing leases at quantum leap prices and landlords are having to compete to not have their investments sit vacant.

This is all pointing to a slowdown in free cash, as people are squeezed with higher borrowing cost and energy and food costs etc.

I think this month will be very instructive on where we go from here and financial analysts will be looking to the central banks and the governments for any clues on what their next moves will be.

However the fact remains that real estate is not only the largest investment most individuals make, it is also an important factor in your lifestyle.

You do not want to be so obsessed with the broad market that you forget you're only looking to buy one home. So making plans ahead of time and being ready to make offers now will ensure you don't miss out on the perfect opportunity for you.

Please Like, Subscribe, Follow the Page and leave a comment with any contributions or questions you would like to share. I'd love to hear from you.

I hope everyone has a wonderful weekend with friends and family.

I'll be back next week to share any developments i see in this market.

Bye for Now!

Joshua Noble
[email protected]
joshuanoble.royallepage.ca

06/27/2022

So sales are much slower than last year, listing coming in faster than last year. Plenty of price reductions and more rising rates forecasted very shortly.

The prudent buyer with a good downpayment and credit worthiness has great options to choose from!

It's funny how there were line ups for showings when homes were selling 20% over ask price with no conditions. Now there's no buyers to be found when average prices are down significantly and there's no competing offers.

National 🏡 sales dropped 21.7% year-over-year in May 2022 👇

06/24/2022

Hello this is Joshua Noble, your southern ontario real estate specialist.

It's friday june 26, lets take a look at this week in the real estate market!

Most notably for the last 7 days we have 4,852 new listings which would put us
on track for over 20,000 new listings in a month!

As i mentioned in a previous video that would set a new record for new listings in one month since the data set begins in 2009.

I addition we have 1702 price decreases which will also have to compete with a huge wave of new listings.

Looking through this weeks price decreases is quite interesting, because there seems to be a lack of trend, the geographical scope of price decreases spans the province and all price points and is even including rental properties and vacant land

There are particular examples I'm watching like a home in Cambridge listed at
725 june 13 then just 4 days later june 17 dropped the price to 599. holding offers until tonight at 8pm. This will be an interesting example to watch and see if it sells this evening or not. Message me to get a realtor.ca link to this listing.

I like to look both at the big picture numbers but also individual examples to try and get the most accurate picture of this market.

However the fact remains whether its a large family home in Brampton, a duplex in Grand Bend, a building lot in Muskoka
or even a rental in Barrie. Demand is softening and sellers are having to lower their prices to try and get some action.

I have two previous videos that I encourage everyone to watch that shows just how impactful the rise in interest rates have been to the purchasing price of would be buyers.

In addition to that, Gas and groceries have never been more expensive for so long
which is eating at the savings and disposable income of people and would be down payments which were invested have received massive hair cuts.

Liquidity is king right now, but there are signs that this sell off could be stabilizing soon.

In the short term it appears like the interest rates have paused their run up this week and the general stock market is poised to close the
week in the green. This gives the consumer confidence in the short term when checking their retirement accounts and investment portfolios.

It's not much of a consolidation though for the masses who have seen their accounts receive shocking haircuts over the last 6 months
but it is an indication that the sell off in real estate may start to moderate from here.

One of the key differences between the stock market and bond market and the real estate market is that you don't live in you TFSA or you RRSP accounts. Everyone needs a home to sleep and shower in and so there is more to consider and more emotions at play when making these decisions. If you're in a place in life where its time to move then right now there are some key advantages as opposed to the winter.

No you wont get the same top dollar as 6 months ago for your home but prices are still very high from pre-pandemic levels, and on the buy side it is now much easier to get an offer accepted not only at a reasonable price but with important conditions to protect yourself.

There are always deals to be had in the real estate market when you're prepared and looking, if you're thinking about making a real estate transaction just get in touch and we can discuss your goals

If you would like exclusive access to recently solds in your area sign up on my website, joshuanoble.royallepage.ca then I can share with you more detailed information that I'm getting through the MLS.

I'm very conservative about what I share publicly in order to make sure I'm in compliance with all of our regulatory agencies.

That's why I only share general market information with the public. However if you do wish to become a client of mine then I can give individualized advice regarding real estate transactions and share with you detailed listings and specific property information.

Thankyou for watching.

I hope you have a great weekend

I'll be at the Toronto FC Soccer game this weekend, cheering on the guys at the BMO field!

and Sunday Jessica and I have an open house in Rockwood Ontario, beautiful home. listed at 1,089,000 and I'll post the realtor.ca link for that property shortly.

Again thankyou for watching and a special thankyou to everyone who supports this page and watched until the end.

I hope to bring you valuable information in this market.

Please don't hesitate to say hi, leave a like and a comment with any questions or anecdotes about what your seeing in your real estate market.

bye for now!

Joshua Noble

[email protected]
joshuanoble.royallepage.ca

06/24/2022

It's not a great time to buy a house but it's much better than 6 months ago.

Way more inventory to choose from, less competition, and conditional, under ask offers are getting accepted.

A savy buyer with a good downpayment and credit now has the potential for their investment to gain 30-50% just to get back where it was.

Renters surveyed by insurance firm Canada Life cited a lack of cash, fear and uncertainty as reasons for staying on the sidelines.

06/23/2022

I bought my first home from a "reputable" builder and still learned many valuable lessons the hard way.

Even though builders are reluctant to pay realtor commissions to a buyer's representative I would still suggest any potential buyer of a new home to consult with a knowledgeable professional before engaging with builders.

Comment, direct message or email me with any questions.

[email protected]

Canadian real estate has already seen a shift behind the scenes after a regulatory failure resulted in changes to the way markets will operate. This week, the RCMP charged two prominent real estate professionals with fraud. It comes after a half-decade investigation, and a regulatory failure nearly....

06/22/2022

No kidding.

Financing costs are up dramatically while invested potential downpayments ie; stocks and bonds, have sold off substantially. Buyers simply don't have the purchasing power they did six months ago.

Couple that with listings coming in fast and days on market extending, well prices are coming down.

The seller who thought they could list and have a firm deal by the weekend is getting shocked when no showings are scheduled and their offer date (if they even had one) passes by without a single offer.

Next month another 0.5% rate hike is forecasted and that might not be enough to stop 40 year high inflation but it will only help push down the affordability of would be buyers.

At least the tables have turned for prudent savers who have been waiting for an ideal property and have a large downpayment set aside.

Low rates benefit debtors, higher rates benefit savers.

Whether you're in the market and want to get out before there's further downside, or want more real estate exposure while distressed properties are entering the market. I can help you out.

Contact today.

[email protected]

Demand is cooling and sellers are "losing their grip" on the housing market in BC according to a new report from RBC.

06/20/2022

Hi folks this is Joshua Noble your Southern Ontario Real Estate Specialist
This is a reminder that the housing market is rapidly evolving and that there is tremendous value in having a close relationship with an expert when thinking about buying or selling real estate.

This page will be a great resource for anybody who wants to know about the general market trends!

However no information here should be taken as specific financial advice, mortgage advice or Real estate advice.

I'll continue to deliver valuable information about the broad market and the process of buying & selling homes but specific advice is only available for contracted clients.
Only then can responsibly and legally give you actionable advice regarding real estate transactions and refer you to experts in other fields including real estate lawyers and mortgage professionals.

You need to reach out to me by commenting on my videos, sending a direct message or calling the phone number listed on this page.

This is a great time to be getting your ducks in a row to make the real estate purchased that was missed in 2021!

Take the first step, sign up for a one on one consultation with me and I think you'll be shocked to discover the quality of homes selling in your price range today!

Joshua Noble
[email protected]
519-856-9922

06/19/2022

Happy Father's Day!

06/17/2022

I wanted to further elaborate my point about how the housing market is truly a debt market
The Price of an Asset is inversely correlated to the price of obtaining the currency to buy it.

What does that mean?

It means that if financing is cheap then real estate prices will not be.
And if borrowing money becomes more expensive then debt balance an individual can carry will shrink.
If the broader market is starved of easy to borrow cash then there will be less cash to go into housing.
Price is set at the margin.
When marginal buyers are priced out Prices come down.

As described in my previous videos prices are down on Average across ontario by -12.9%
Because of variable mortgage rates climbing from 0.95% to 2.4%
and fixed loans moving from 1.5% to 4.29%

Multiple opinion articles are talking about how the market is pricing in a 0.75% rate hike to the Bank of Canada's overnight rate
this would be to keep in line with our neighbors to the south.
As long as the Americans are tightening and raising rates massive political pressure will be on the BOC to follow suit.

This further 0.75% is expected to come into effect in July.
what are the implications on housing?
following my example from earlier this week lets make our base case a $3000/month mortgage
and lets forecast what will happen to affordibility
if we assume 0.75% direct increase to mortgage rates from here ie no addition risk premium to government debt
variable: 2.4%+0.75% = 3.15%
fixed: 4.29%+0.75% = 5.04%

3000/month @ 3.15% variable = approximately 600k mortgage
3000/month @ 5.045 fixed = approximately 500K mortgage

this is from 700k mortgages before this rate hike
and the same cost as a 900k mortgage in february!!!

Furthermore Jerome Powel chairman of the federal reserve stated this week that their target is in the mid 3s
where are we now you ask 1.5-1.75. So another 1.5-2% on the base rate to go by the end of the year!

so does that mean average home prices should drop another 2-$300,000 by the end of this year?
technically its not impossible

however the housing market is a very political issue, people want more affordable houses
Voters on the other hand do not enjoy it when their homes become much more affordable!

there are rumblings that have been going on for years about extending the compliance of 40 and even 50 year loans

when you expand the duration of the loan suddenly you can borrow much more money.

More cash to borrow means more cash to spend. Home prices can resume their upward trajectory.

3000/month @ 3.15 variable = apprx 900k mortgage!
implying a 50% price premium to the same rate paid in 25 years

however the borrower will have a mortgage for 50 years and pay $888,497 in interest as opposed to $267,000 over 25 years

this quick math should be on every potential buyer and sellers mind

we can expect tighter monetary conditions over the short to medium term
however new regulation or other drastic changes could interrupt our forecasts.

in order to stay up to date with this rapidly changing market like my page

follow me on all my platforms,

and sign up on my website to become a preferred client with exclusive access to recently sold data in your area.

take care!