10/07/2026
π FALL MARKET ~ NEW DYNAMIC INSIGHT ~ ZEITGEIST
The long held belief that if you don't sell your home in the Fall for the price you want, you could just list it again in the Spring and receive a higher sales price, may not necessarily be the case anymore in this current market environment.... did things change?
π In doing some market research recently, I discovered that this long held belief has changed and shifted somewhat. Prices still do have a tendency to rise in the Spring, but the question is from what level, and what period(timeframe)?
π The attached graphic shows the Niagara Region HPI September homes sales prices from 2022 to 2026, and the "Spring" sales prices from the following year. Some years peaked in March, some in May, and even July.
π§ What did I find?
πΉ From Sept 2022 to the following year prices did in fact go up above the September price by $5,300, but it wasn't until June and July! Note, May was about break even.
πΉ In the following years, the September price was HIGHER than at any point in the following year!!! Yes, prices were lower in the Spring than in September the year prior!!!
πΉ The data revealed that October prices, which were generally lower than September did perform a little better, but were still challenged to be "higher" in the Spring.
πΉ And with no surprise November and December home sales prices were lower than those sold in the Spring, as those two months are traditionally slow months.
Note: keep in mind that each municipality is different, and the pricing moves may vary from the Niagara Region data, but overall this trend is in play right now.
π From this I observed two things. 1) the Fall market in recent years has not evolved as earlier years past in that it did not provide price gains over the summer months, while in fact continued to extend price weakness, and 2) it has a much shorter duration. It looks like September and October, and perhaps even only to the 3rd week of October are better months to sell than October and November as a whole, which is commonly thought of as the Fall Market.
π My take away is this. If selling in the Fall, price to the current market conditions and price structure for your property, even offering a slight "value" pricing opportunity to buyers. And be ready to list right after Labour Day if you can.
π π I foresee the September 2026 to Spring 2027 pricing pattern to follow that of 2025 to 2026, perhaps with more downward severity.
π There will be a time when the old Fall Market dynamic returns, but that time may be a year or two or three away. Real estate like all things in life change, make sure you and your agent have a firm grip and solid understanding of the market conditions at the time.
β¨ zeitgeist ~ "spirit of the time" an invisible collective values, beliefs, and trends that dominate society during a particular era.
βοΈ Please reach out if you'd like some particular market information, are buying, selling, or wish to refer me to a friend or family etc. I'll do my best to serve you.
Cheers and do enjoy this pleasant October weather we are experiencing here in Niagara π