03/10/2020
Serious inventory shortage likely to be the single biggest driver for the Spring Market
The The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board MLS reported 7,256 sales for February 2020, representing over a 45% increase from the same month last year, the biggest year over year increase in the past decade. Also up were February’s new listings at 10,613, almost 8% higher year over year. In stark contrast to the positive numbers, February’s active listings at 8,816 were down by 33.5% compared to 2019 – the biggest year over year monthly decrease of the decade.
As shown in this 10 year summary of TRREB activity, February 2020 sales have recovered to 95% of February 2016 levels. However, February 2016 saw activation of 6% more new listings than this February, in a year that ultimately saw 85,731 total transactions. Of even greater significance, February 2016 saw 24% more active listings versus this February overall, yet TRREB's forecast for 2020 is for 97,000 transactions or 13% more than occurred in 2016. All this points to increasing pressure to win insufficient product in an environment where buyers are returning post OSFI stress test adjustments, and a return to record low interest rates on the heels of last week's Bank of Canada announcement.
