Patrick Rocca Leaside Davisville East York Real Estate

10/10/2026

10/09/2026

MARKET INSIGHT FOR THE WEEK ENDING October 9th, 2026

Average asking rents fall 4.2% in September, marking 24 months of decreases

Canada’s rental market continues to cool, with rents falling for the second straight year, according to a monthly report from Rentals.ca and Urbanation. The report says this is now the longest period of annual declines the Canadian rental market has seen in recent history.

The average asking rent for a rental unit in September was $2,034, down 4.2 per cent from a year earlier.

Rents have now fallen 7.3 per cent over the past two years and are 9.2 per cent below their peak of $2,202 in May 2024.

There is, however, some good news for renters. Statistics Canada figures included in the report show that average weekly earnings have increased 19.4 per cent over the past five years, meaning rental affordability has generally improved.

Rents also dipped slightly from August, falling $1 from $2,035. This was the second consecutive monthly decline and follows a fairly typical seasonal trend, with rental demand usually stronger through the spring and summer before easing in the fall.

Ontario saw one of the larger declines among the provinces, with average rents across all property types down 4.8 per cent year-over-year. Rents fell 2.9 per cent in B.C., 2.6 per cent in Alberta and 1.7 per cent in Quebec. Some provinces went the other way, with rents increasing 1.4 per cent in both Nova Scotia and Saskatchewan.

Looking at rents on a square-foot basis, the average asking rent across Canada’s six largest markets was $2.48, down 1.5 per cent from September 2025.

Purpose-built apartment rents fell 2.7 per cent from a year earlier to an average of $2,036 in September. Condo apartment rents fell more sharply, dropping 7.8 per cent to $2,052. Purpose-built apartments had the smallest annual decline of all property types.

Condos continued to see the biggest drop, with studio condo rents falling 9.6 per cent. Other types of rental properties, including houses and townhomes, were down 7.4 per cent year-over-year to $2,016.

The report suggests there may finally be some signs of stability in Toronto and Vancouver, where rents have fallen to their lowest levels in five years.

Urbanation president Shaun Hildebrand said the increase in rental supply has been the main reason behind the correction, but that new supply is now moving beyond its peak in major markets such as Toronto and Vancouver.

He also noted that rents in both cities have moved higher over the past six months, while the annual declines have become much smaller as renters who had been waiting on the sidelines begin returning to the market.

The report points to several reasons why Toronto and Vancouver could see a return to positive rent growth. Construction inventory has peaked, population data has been revised to show a modest increase, and both cities are somewhat less exposed to tariffs because of the makeup of their labour markets.

For renters, the combination of lower rents and move-in incentives could also bring more people back into the market. The report suggests that some households delayed moving because of high rents and instead stayed with parents or roommates for longer.

With rental prices now more affordable and supply beginning to level off, the next few months could be an important turning point for Canada’s rental market.

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10/06/2026

10/02/2026

MARKET INSIGHT FOR THE WEEK ENDING October 2nd, 2026

A Housing Comeback Was Taking Shape. Higher Rates Add a New Challenge.

There were hopes that Canada’s struggling housing market would see a modest pickup in 2026. But the trade war and higher oil prices put a damper on those expectations. Now, rising mortgage rates are creating another hurdle for a market that was hoping to gain some momentum.

Bond yields have jumped in recent weeks, with the Canada five-year bond yield reaching a new two-year high of 3.72. Since lenders use the five-year bond as a guide when setting longer-term fixed mortgage rates, those rates have also moved higher, rising more than 0.25 per cent over the past month and getting close to the mid-4-per-cent range.

David Larock, owner of Toronto-based Integrated Mortgage Planners, says mortgage rates are still relatively low compared with where bond yields would normally put them. One reason is that lenders are competing for the large number of pandemic-era mortgages that are now coming up for renewal after five years.

That competition may not last forever. As the wave of renewals starts to ease, some lenders could become less aggressive, which could put more upward pressure on mortgage rates later this year.

Larock says fixed mortgage rates would normally be about 125 or even 150 basis points above the Canada five-year bond yield. Right now, many five-year fixed rates are less than 100 basis points higher.

“If the spreads were to normalize, that would definitely require another quarter-point increase in rates, and that could happen anytime,” Mr. Larock said. “Over the near-term, there’s a lot of upside risk in yields and in rates.”

For realtors, there are already several factors weighing on the market. Lower immigration, weak consumer confidence and the economic uncertainty created by the trade war are all making buyers more cautious.

The breakdown of trade negotiations between Canada and the U.S. in August added to that uncertainty and further weakened confidence in both the Canadian economy and housing market.

Now, economists are warning that higher fixed mortgage rates could make affordability even more difficult, giving buyers another reason to stay on the sidelines.

Earlier this month, the Canadian Real Estate Association downgraded its forecast for 2026 and 2027, partly because the interest-rate outlook has become less favourable for buyers. CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart said markets have already priced in the possibility of higher variable rates, while borrowers are also dealing with the impact of rising fixed mortgage rates.

The latest CREA numbers show the market is still struggling to build momentum. National home sales were down 6.9 per cent in August compared with a year earlier and fell 0.7 per cent on a seasonally adjusted month-by-month basis. New listings increased 3.3 per cent from the previous month, while the national benchmark home price was down 3 per cent from a year ago.

That is a very different outlook from the beginning of 2026, when CREA was expecting Canadian housing markets to see modest gains during the year.

The war in Iran and its impact on oil and gas prices has been one of the reasons bond yields and mortgage rates have moved higher. But even if the conflict comes to an end, it may not be enough on its own to get the housing market moving again.

Bond yields are also being pushed higher by concerns among investors about U.S. government fiscal policy. Since Canadian bond yields are closely tied to U.S. bond markets, those concerns could continue to put pressure on Canadian mortgage rates.

Andrew Lis, chief economist for Greater Vancouver Realtors, points to another issue: slower immigration and falling rents are making real estate less attractive to investors. While there have been short periods over the past couple of years when the market improved for a month or two, he expects the overall market to continue to lag.

“You take all these factors together, and my opinion is this equates to a market that will probably move sideways for some time until these factors resolve. The major one I’d look for is a pickup in immigration,” Mr. Lis said.

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10/02/2026

Davisville 4bdrm semi....999k

09/25/2026

MARKET INSIGHT FOR THE WEEK ENDING September 25th, 2026

GTA New Home Sales Rebound as Buyers Return

New single-family home sales in the GTA jumped to 692 in August, more than triple the 215 sales recorded during the same month last year. Sales were also 47 per cent above the 10-year average, according to Altus Group data prepared for the building industry. Condo sales, however, continue to sit well below their long-term average.

The Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) says Ontario’s HST rebate program is playing a major role in the increase, helping offset some of the uncertainty created by the U.S. tariffs and ongoing trade tensions.

“The tariffs and the global uncertainty and the trade wars have had a rather chilling effect on the market, so the HST rebate has countered that,” said Justin Sherwood, chief operating officer at BILD.

Sherwood also said there is “no chance” the latest round of tariffs will push development costs high enough to wipe out the benefit of the HST rebate.

The one-year HST rebate on new homes was introduced as a boost for the new home industry, which has been dealing with a significant price gap between new and resale homes as well as a growing supply backlog. Since the federal and provincial governments introduced the rebate in April, single-family home sales have picked up, although the condo market continues to struggle.

With August’s increase, total single-family home sales for 2026 have reached 5,550. That is more than double last year’s record low and puts sales roughly in line with the 10-year average.

The condo market is telling a different story. There were 215 condo sales in the GTA in August, including stacked townhouses and units in low- mid- and high-rise buildings. While that was double the number sold in August 2025, sales were still 78 per cent below the 10-year average. During the pandemic, condo sales reached an August peak in 2021 with 3,149 units sold during the month.

The benchmark price for a new single-family home, which excludes unusually high or low sales, was $1.25 million. That was down 14.6 per cent from a year earlier.

The benchmark price for a new condominium apartment was $1.04 million, an increase of 1.3 per cent year-over-year.

“We’re starting to see that in the GTA, townhomes are making up a large share of the single-family homes that are moving in comparison to the traditional historical pattern,” he said.

He added that builders are pricing townhomes in a way that allows buyers to take greater advantage of the HST rebate while also offering the type of housing buyers are looking for.

“I think with all of that combined, it’s all coming together to provide the momentum to buy,” Sherwood said.

The condo market has not benefited from the HST rebate to the same extent as the single-family market. Sherwood said it is more difficult for condo projects to qualify, particularly because of rules surrounding when developments must start and finish.

Despite the recent improvement in sales, the GTA still has a considerable amount of new home inventory. Based on current supply and demand, it would take 38.5 months to sell all housing types currently on the market. A balanced market would normally have about nine to 12 months of inventory.

The prices reported for both single-family homes and condos are gross prices, meaning they do not include the HST rebate. BILD said it uses gross prices so that the numbers can be compared directly with previous years.

After five consecutive months of rising sales for low-rise new homes, Sherwood said the results suggest the HST rebate is having an impact.

The building and renovation industry is a significant part of the regional economy. BILD says it supports 256,000 jobs in the region and represents $39.3 billion in investment value.

Sherwood also pointed out that residential homebuilding is largely a domestic industry, with 100 per cent of its labour coming from Canada and the vast majority of the materials and other inputs being supplied by Canadian companies.

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09/23/2026

Great informative evening at the leaside biz park gathering....happy to participate..traffic is the # 1 issue..effecting residential and business and not in a good way..not good...the city is a mess..we need new leadership and direction 🙏🤦‍♂️

09/22/2026

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