08/21/2025
Canadian Home Sales on Upward Trend; Are We Moving to Sellers’ Market Territory?
The latest data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) shows the number of home sales in Canada climbed 3.8% in July compared to June.
In the eyes of CREA’s Senior Economist Shaun Cathcart, “that’s a trend, for sure.”
“With every month that goes by here, I think we can say more and more that the rebound we’ve been forecasting for the last year… was just delayed by a few months and now we’re sort of in it,” Cathcart said during this month’s CREA Housing Market Report (watch the full report below).
Before we break down all the latest data, here’s what you need to know at a glance:
National home sales were up 3.8% month-over-month.
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) home sales came in 6.6% higher when compared to July of last year.
The number of newly listed properties was basically unchanged (up 0.1%) on a month-over-month basis.
The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price edged up 0.6% on a year-over-year basis.
Why are Canadian home sales increasing now?
Simply put, the tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump and the uncertain economic outlook that came with those threats were acting as a dark cloud over Canada in early spring. This put the brakes on a bustling spring market CREA had originally forecasted at the start of the year.
But with fall just around the corner, the pent-up demand is starting to show. In fact, home sales are up a cumulative 11.2% since March following last month’s jump.
And it’s just in time for September, which can be a busy time for real estate transactions with Canadians returning from summer holidays.
“There is a fall market and there’s often a big burst of listings that come out in September,” Cathcart explains in the report. “And if the buyers are there waiting, then that’s where we’re going to see things sell in even bigger numbers in October and November. That’s what happened last year.”
Is it a buyers’ market or a sellers’ market?
The sales-to-new listings ratio is currently at 52% (readings roughly between 45% and 65% are generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions). As noted above, the number of newly listed properties in July was basically unchanged at +0.1%, meaning there’s a bit of a squeeze on inventory at the national level.
“The ratio is falling, so we’re moving very rapidly to the direction of a sellers’ market again,” Cathcart says. “If we keep this up, and I’m not saying we will, we will officially be in a national sellers’ market by January.”
Are Canadian home prices increasing yet?
All real estate markets are local, so you’ll see different scenarios in different provinces. For instance, in Quebec and the East Coast, prices have been rising for almost three years “almost everywhere,” according to Cathcart. The same goes for the Prairies, except for Calgary, which is a more expensive market.
Prices are falling in the Lower Mainland area of British Columbia, but in Victoria and the interior of the province you may see prices rising.
Ontario is a mixed bag, but as Cathcart points out in the report, “In general, as we go forward… there will be a lot less places where prices are falling.”
The non-seasonally adjusted national average home price was $672,784 in July 2025.
