Bruce Nambiar Real Estate, 408 Dundas Streeet W, Whitby, ON (2026)

09/19/2024

Greater Toronto Area (GTA) home sales were down 5.3% in August compared to July. Average prices were also down 2.9% from $1,106,617 to $1,074,425. Year over year prices were only down 0.8% which shows the resilience in the housing market considering the very high interest rates over the past year. As interest rates continue to decline prices will likely increase going forward.

Inflation for August came in at only 2% which was lower than the 2.1% economists predicted. If you take out mortgage interest from the CPI calculation, then inflation is 1.2% which is great news. The Bank of Canada’s target inflation rate is 1% to 3% and deflation is not good news for any economy so watch for aggressive rate cuts if inflation stays low.

The US Fed did an unexpected rate cut of 0.5% yesterday as they waited too long to cut their rate so they had to start cutting rates aggressively. The next Bank of Canada interest rate announcement is scheduled for October 23rd. With unemployment rising, inflation cooling down and the economy slowing down, I am going to forecast a bigger than expected 0.5% rate cut at the next announcement. I don’t see any scenario where there is no interest rate cut, so there will be at least a 0.25% cut but I think it will be bigger than that.

Inventory has started to climb this month and has surpassed 25,000 active listings for the first time since June 2010. Again this is a tale of two markets as the condo market continues to struggle and it is oversupplied. This week there were two announcements by the government that will help the market and increase prices. The first being 30 year amortizations extended to resale properties (previously only new construction) for first time home buyers and the second is insurable mortgages up to $1.5 million (previously up to $1 million). I am not a big fan of these changes as it does not address the issue of affordability/housing supply and instead it is designed to make prices increase. Reach out to me for further information on these new changes.

August was typically quiet but as we roll into the fall market, sales will pick up. The next few weeks will be interesting to see if buyers sitting on the sidelines decide to purchase, especially buyers who know that interest rate decreases eventually leads to prices rising as affordability increases.

Thinking of buying or selling? Any questions? Call me at 647-671-1777 to get started.

08/16/2024

Greater Toronto Area (GTA) home sales in July 2024 were down 13.2% compared to June 2024. Prices were also down month over month. Prices dropped 4.79% from $1,162,167 to $1,106,617 for the average price of a home in the GTA. This can be attributed to the summer usually being a slow time in the market, high interest rates and buyers still waiting for interest rates to come down further.

The next Bank of Canada interest rate announcement is scheduled for September 4th. I think they will drop it another 0.25%. A lot of people are predicting a 0.5% drop but that is unlikely as the US has not dropped their rate and their interest rate announcement is scheduled for September 17th. Historically, Canada's interest rate has been between 0.5% to 1% below the US rate and anything above that will jeopardize devaluing the Canadian dollar. Hence the Bank of Canada will not make any drastic reductions till the US starts to lower their rates.

Current inventory sits at 24,258 and it has been hovering around 24,000 since June 18th. This is good news for the market as inventory is not increasing as sales are declining. Sales for this year at the end of July were 41,993 which is lower than last year's pace of 43,798. Last year was a record low for sales so this is another reason the Bank of Canada will need to drop the interest rate to help pick up the market. Also with per capita GDP declining fast we are in a recession so the interest rates will need to come down to help the economy. We continue to be in a buyers market but that can change fast when interest rates fall.

My thoughts are the market will pick up and prices will eventually go up. There is a severe shortage of housing so this lull in the market is temporary. Demand for housing will always be there as immigrants continue to arrive in record numbers and there is just not enough supply. Also builders will not build unless the market improves and are already stalling on new construction projects so the shortage of housing will keep prices high.

Thinking of Buying or Selling? Call me at 647-671-1777 to get started.

07/16/2024

GTA Monthly Market Update

Inventory continues to remain high with 24,706 homes on the market as of today. The Bank of Canada's first interest rate cut in four years has done little to boost Toronto's real estate market as sales continue to drop. Condo sales are starting to feel the brunt of it with condos showing a whopping 28% decrease in units sold in June compared to the same time last year. The average price of a home sold in June 2024 was $1,162,167. The average price would be lower but prices remained relatively the same and only down 0.3% month over month due to a smaller proportion on condo sales being included in the average sales price. Year over year prices have only decreased 1.6% but again if we look deeper into the numbers - last June 28% of the homes sold in June were condos and this year condos only account for 24% of the homes sold in June. With condos being the lowest priced housing option selling less condos would increase the average sales price.

We are currently in a buyers market as the sales to new listings ratio is 34.5%. When this ratio is under 40% it is a buyers market and when it is over 60% it is a sellers market. Buyers are waiting for more rate cuts before they move off the sidelines. Entry level freehold properties continue to be the segment that has the most demand and homes in these categories are still selling quickly when priced right. The next interest rate announcement is July 24th and my thoughts are that they will reduce the interest rate another 0.25%. Today's inflation report showed that inflation declined to 2.7% in June from 2.9% in May. It was 2.7% in April so inflation increased slightly in May but back down again in June. Another interest rate reduction will give buyers confidence that rates are eventually going to come down significantly so this will help the market improve by stimulating demand as buyers try to beat the rush. TREB has forecasted that prices will reach $1.17 million by the end of the year so not much movement in prices as it is $1.16 million currently. I am seeing the market pick up slightly so far in July but with the current high inventory it is hard to tell whether this increase in demand will translate to an increase in prices.

If you have any questions or need a detailed market update of what is going on in your area, please don't hesitate to reach out to me anytime at 647-671-1777. Thanks!

06/11/2024

GTA Monthly Market Update. The Bank of Canada finally had a rate cut but only by 0.25%. This will not have a significant effect on the housing market as affordability and housing supply are still a big issue. I think the Bank of Canada will cut the interest rate another 0.5% to 0.75% by year end and this will increase buyers confidence on interest rates going back to normal pre covid rates which will increase demand. Currently inflation is 2.7% and if you strip out shelter costs (mortgage interest and rent) then inflation is below 1.5%. Canada and Iceland are the only first world countries that include shelter costs in their inflation calculations. From that perspective of removing shelter costs, inflation is definitely under control so more interest rate cuts are going to be expected. In other words, the Bank of Canada with it's high interest rate is a direct cause of the inflation as mortgage interest is causing most of the inflation currently. Also per capita GDP continues to decline and we are in a recission which will justify further interest rate cuts.

Inventory has climbed to 23,074 as of today which is the highest we have seen since pre covid. This is good news for buyers as there are more options available but prices remained resilient again this month and increased by 0.8% to $1,165,691 from $1,156,167 the previous month. This can be attributed to a tale of two markets with the freehold market being very competitive especially under the $1,000,000 price point and the condo market lagging with a lot of condo inventory sitting on the market. So the average sales prices can be skewed as there are more sales of freehold properties versus condo properties which increases the average sale price. Record immigration and the fact that there is no real solution to address the housing shortage will keep prices stable in the near future.

If you are thinking of buying, selling or have any real estate questions, please reach out to me. Thanks!

05/14/2024

GTA Monthly Market update. Inventory has increased significantly over the last month from 12,459 on March 31st to 20,411 as of today. This is a significant increase and unusually high for May so it is something to keep an eye out for. Last year inventory was 10,373 around this time so about a 100% increase in inventory when you do a year over year comparison. This is good news for buyers as there are more options available and the increased inventory levels will start to put pressure on prices to come down.

Prices continued to be resilient this past month and still increased 3.1% from $1,121,615 to $1,156,167 for the average price of a home in the GTA. With the elevated inventory levels, watch for the prices to start coming down in next months market update. The next Bank of Canada interest rate announcement is scheduled for June 5th and it will be interesting to see what happens. Most economists are predicting the Bank of Canada will leave the rate unchanged but there is a chance they lower the interest rate to prop up the housing market. If you are thinking of buying this is a good time because of the increased options available and the spring market has come to an end. If you are thinking of buying or selling or if you have any questions, feel free to reach to me anytime.

04/08/2024

GTA Monthly Market update. Prices continued to inch up as the average price of a home sold for $1,121,615 a 1.3% increase on a month over month basis. The first quarter ended with sales up 11.2% year over year to keep pace with TREB's forecast of 77,000 sales this year. There were 16,347 sales for the first quarter of 2024 compared to 14,705 for the first quarter of 2023.

Active listings are 16,161 as of today. This was a bigger increase than expected as active listings were about 13,000 at the start of March. This is good news for buyers as there are more options with the increased supply so prices will stabilize. I think inventory will continue to rise slowly so average prices should hold and hoover around the $1,100,000 range. Inventory is still below the 21,000 level seen in October 2023.

A key indicator to see where the market is headed is to monitor the inventory levels and the interest rate. The Bank of Canada interest rate announcement is set for April 10, 2024. Consensus is the bank will hold the rate yet again even though current inflation is 2.8% which is in the Bank of Canada's target inflation range of 1% to 3%.

If you have any real estate questions or are thinking of making a move, please reach out to me anytime. Thanks!

03/07/2024

GTA Monthly Market update. As mentioned in last months market update the spring market seemed to be coming earlier than expected and the bottom of the market may be coming to an end. This is evident in this months TREB stats as average house prices rose 6.9% from $1,036,925 in January 2024 to $1,108,720 in February 2024. Also home sales in the Toronto Area surged by 17.9% compared to the previous year. There is a lot of activity and demand for entry level freeholds especially in the $800k to $1M range as buyers are coming to terms with the elevated mortgage rates over the past two years. However, the condo market is slow and has not picked up yet due to more options available and less demand. If the freehold market continues to surge we can expect it to spillover to the condo market and demand for condos will increase.

The Bank of Canada held it's interest rate again yesterday and one of the main reasons is a rate cut now could overheat the spring housing market according to Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem. He said the central bank is keeping a close eye on how the housing market behaves. In a news conference yesterday, he said his projections show the market is already picking up speed. He's worried that could accelerate with a rate cut.

If you are interested in a more detailed market update and report in your area, please reach out to me anytime. Thanks!

02/09/2024

Just Leased!! Leased in a few days for full asking price.

02/09/2024

Just Sold!! Congratulations to my seller clients! Sold in 6 days for $100,000 over asking price.

02/09/2024

GTA market stats for year over year and month over month comparisons. Market has been picking up a little earlier this year and before the spring market. Buyer demand and confidence has increased as the Bank of Canada has held rates four consecutive times. Inventory in the GTA has also declined since the high of about 21,000 homes for sale in November 2023 to about 12,000 homes available for sale today. Sellers are waiting for the spring market. Currently demand is outpacing the new listings so we are seeing bidding wars again. Please reach out to me to get a more detailed report for what is going on in your neighborhood or if you have any questions. Thanks!

02/09/2024

A big thank you to all my family and friends! Another great year in the books. I am really grateful for your business and referrals 🙏 Cheers to a successful 2024 🥂

04/11/2022

Beautiful 3 bedroom home at Warden and Danforth. Only 15 mins away from downtown!! Asking $1,175,000. Message for details if interested.

Bruce Nambiar Real Estate

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