16/04/2026
A flashback from almost 6 years ago ... Covid ... a lot of spare time then and some thoughts I wrote down but never published 🤔
Fun to read through it 6 years later and check with reality 😉
I'll update the story in 2 weeks celebrating 25 years in Estepona/Spain .
Here we go:
Exactly 19 years ago, the 30th of April 2001 I started my journey to Andalucia – Spain with my wife to be Stephanie. A lot has happened over these years, so I thought it was a good time to look back at the passed period, after 45 days of confinement, and give my thought on the current situation.
2nd of May 2001 – 13th of March 2020
A bolt resumé of this time period both on personal level & business level
- Married
- With 3 children
- various cats & dogs
- 11 years working for one of the most prestigious Real Estate Cy’s of the beginning of the Millennium
- 8 years working as an Independent Real Estate Agent
- Over 6.000 properties visited between apartments, townhouses and villas
- Almost 5.000 properties valued between € 100.000 euro and € 65.000.000 euro
- 3.750 properties effectively listed for selling purpose
- Approximately 100 encounters with famous politicians, pop stars, writers, sport figures of all over the world
- 125 New Apartment Promotions visited
- Driven almost 500.000 km in the streets of Estepona, Marbella, Benahavis and beyond
- About 20 properties ‘refurbished & decorated’ for clients
- 6.175 days of sunshine but also some floods (2018 – 2019), some wildfires (2010 – 2012 – 2019), … the big 2008 crisis…. And we are still there, and happy!
THE PAST 45 DAYS
We arrived in Marbella in the middle of a new booming period and recovery of the 2nd crisis:
- The 1st Real Estate crisis exploded as a late consequence of the 1st Petrol crisis of 73-74 which impacted around 1978, after Adolfo Suarez, the first Democratic President of the new era was elected, and Franco passed away. Prices dropped for about 35% over a period of 5 years.
- The 2nd Real Estate bubble burst after the market recovered totally end of the 80’s and reached new heights for price levels beginning of the 90’s, only to be hit by the 3rd Petrol Crisis of 1992, as a consequence of Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait in 91. Prices dropped significantly after that and started increasing again towards the end of the century.
- The 3rd and major crisis arrived in 2008, which was a financial crisis arising from the fall of Lehman Brothers, the sub primes, mortgages, over indebtment …. which occurred after 7 years of uninterrupted price rises peaking in 2007, with an inflated market.
A short analysis of sales prices in Estepona-Marbella-Benahavis over the last 40 years show us that prices double in value every 12 to 15 years, (taking into account inflation also of course) every time interrupted by a correction period due to a crisis or correction on speculation.
So as the market was booming again during the last 8 years and that we almost reached the levels of 2007, a correction was logically expected around the summer 2020, which most real estate specialist will acknowledge, even if demand was still high for good and correctly priced properties, but of course we could not foresee the sanitary crisis and ‘temporary freeze’ of the market due to the Coronavirus.
In my mind, if there is a price correction, it could be quite different depending on the product:
- New promotions in Top Location which already sold for about 80% will have no changes in price, as they are in high demand with few units left
- New promotions in ‘developing areas’ and early stage of construction, or with a lot of competition around, will probably have to lower their prices slightly, depending on the financial strength of the promotor
- Resales will be affected if they were previously over valued or if they are in areas with fewer demand or more offer
- Some properties, depending on areas will still be in demand as they are still cheaper than ‘average apartments’ on European coasts.
The reason for this being that Marbella-Estepona-Benahavis do not especially depend on the national market, which due to the crisis and with higher unemployment levels will lose purchasing power in the short time, but more on an international market where investors, coming from everywhere in Europe and even from around the world, are still sitting on important saving accounts, giving almost no interest in the bank, and so once the sanitary crisis is over, business might return to normal.
That is of course, if politicians handle the situation in a good way and in the interest of all.
We were ‘lucky’ that the past 45 days brought us poor weather conditions (it always rains for Semana Santa) and we even had 15 days of rain (bringing the total since 15th of May 2019 to a good 30 days), which motivated the population to stay inside during the confinement. As a result, figures for the Costa del Sol and Andalucia in general are particularly good and some restrictions will gradually be lifted, maybe a little faster than in other parts of Spain.
For 45 days only emergency work was allowed, working from home encouraged and trips to supermarkets, pharmacy or bank where the only moments you could leave the house.
Because of the great behaviour of the Andalusians, and respect for the confinement regulations of local foreign residents, things are starting to change:
- Kids under 14 can sport/walk outside for 1 hour accompanied by an adult since 26/4
- As of 2/5 people under one roof could go walking together, or exercise individual sport
- As of 4/5 some shops will be able to re-open and restaurants could prepare ‘Take Away’ food
- As of 11/5 terraces and restaurants in open air could re-open with 30% occupancy, as well as hotels without using ‘communal areas’
- From the 25/5 onwards restaurants & bars could open their interior space with limited capacity …
No official news still concerning the possibility for tourists or 2nd homeowners to come back to the coast but let us hope this will be for the end of June.
So if everything goes well, normal life should gradually be coming back to this wonderful area in the coming weeks, especially as we are expecting temperature to rise above 25º during the first week of May, which could prevent further expansion of the virus.
The Costa del Sol has a history of high’s and low’s in the Real Estate Sector over the last 40 years but has always followed a global positive trend, which should continue soon.
Most consulted professionals in the Real Estate sector; being bankers, real estate promotors, constructors or Leading Agents, agree that this crisis, although severe, is totally different from the previous ones as this time the world economy was in good shape, and it is purely a sanitary crisis, which once resolved, should allow us hopefully to return to the pre-crisis situation.
The most important fact for Marbella-Estepona-Benahavis, and what ‘Everybody is buying’ are those 300 days of sun, the best climate in Europe, a fantastic Mediterranean Gastronomy, charming towns, magnificent cultural excursions or nature trips, accessibility within 3 hours of most European capitals, laid back way of life, and the most welcoming people for tourism ….and this is something that will never change as it is part of the Andalusian heritage.
If we follow the rules, respect each other and make slow progress day by day, hopefully we can see each other soon again under the sun or in a Chiringuito.
Take care – Axel Van Hellemont - MarbellaVillaExpert
