19/11/2012
The equity markets suffered a torrid time last week, but the major currencies seem to be settling down to trade back within defined ranges.......
As President Obama tries to find support for his new financial initiatives in the States, the equity markets fell last week across the globe as the problems in Europe appear to be worsening and investors are unsure as to the future of the major economies. The pound had a mixed week, moving higher after the encouraging UK inflation data on Tuesday, but falling as Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, gave a rather bearish view of the economy over the next few years. King said that the UK would not be able to get back to where it stood pre-recession until at least 2015, and that growth was expected to be down in the last quarter of this year. Sterling hit a two month low versus the dollar on Thursday at $1.5825, but managed to climb back to $1.59 as the buyers came back to pick up some cheap pounds. There is still a bias to buy the dollar at the moment, and it may be difficult for the other currencies to make any significant ground back against the Green back this month.
After the pound broke down through the support level at $1.5950, which held for most of last month, the rate has entered a new trading range between $1.58 and $1.5950 in the short term according to some traders we have spoken to this morning. This week is expected to be relatively quiet ahead of the long Thanksgiving weekend in the States-we are told there is good support for Sterling just below $1.5825 but the price needs to get back above $1.5960 now to have any chance of getting in the $1.60’s for December.
The price of the pound versus the Euro still appears to be locked in a short term range between €1.24 and €1.25, as both currencies appear to have their own problems and are moving in tandem with the dollar. As mentioned last week the economic growth forecasts-or lack of it- from the Euro member states are still very poor and we could see a further weakening of the euro which may push this rate on the topside of the range.
Cornhill FX