01/11/2024
In the bustling heart of the property market, a senior agent has issued a grave warning: while annual sales have seen a commendable rise, the monthly figures have settled into a disheartening stagnation, hindered by a scarcity of available homes.
According to the latest data from HMRC, property transactions have surged by 9% over the year, reaching a total of 91,820. Yet, the monthly increase limps along at just under 1%, revealing a troubling trend. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the numbers stand at 94,800, a modest 2% increase from September 2023, though 9% lower than the robust figures of August 2024.
Nick Leeming, the esteemed chairman of Jackson-Stops, observed, “The slight delay in the transaction figures reflects the immediate uplift the election results have bestowed upon the housing market. Buyers, buoyed by declining interest rates and rising wages, are eager to continue their quests for new homes. However, we find ourselves in a quagmire of stagnation each month, largely due to the dearth of available properties that could facilitate further transactions.”
He continued, “Despite the grand displays surrounding yesterday's Budget, the property market remains in a state akin to before. It was a missed opportunity to introduce much-needed Stamp Duty reforms—an initiative anticipated by market analysts and supported by the public. Our research at Jackson-Stops revealed that one in four individuals across the nation backs a change in stamp duty. While the decision to keep housing policies largely unchanged may not shake buyer confidence, we remain hopeful that declining inflation and improved borrowing conditions will fortify it.”
Matt Thompson, the head of sales at Chestertons, added his voice to the chorus. “In September, the allure of mortgage products with interest rates below 4% ignited a fervor among house hunters, prompting them to either embark on or conclude their property searches. This revival in interest has encouraged sellers to act swiftly, thus expanding the selection available to buyers.”
Thompson further noted, “Currently, we have 17% more properties under offer than we did in 2020, with fresh waves of buyers continuing to enter the market. We anticipate this vibrant activity will persist in the weeks ahead, especially if the Bank of England chooses to announce another rate cut next week.”
Nathan Emerson, chief executive of Propertymark, chimed in with a cautiously optimistic outlook. “Yet, we must acknowledge the disheartening elements within yesterday’s Budget. First-time buyers, in particular, are set to bear the brunt of changes, as the Stamp Duty threshold is set to drop back to £300,000 come next April. For those aspiring to step onto the property ladder with a home priced at £425,000, this alteration translates to an additional tax burden of £6,250—a heavy weight indeed for those hoping to secure their future.”
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