18/04/2024
Interest Rates and Inflation 2024
March's decrease in consumer price inflation (CPI), though not as large as anticipated, raises concerns for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). Despite this, we believe it won't deter the MPC from lowering interest rates in June. The headline CPI slowed to 3.2% in March, its lowest since September 2021, down from February's 3.4%, but still higher than the expected 3.1%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, also remained above forecasts at 4.2%, down from February's 4.5%. Retail price inflation (RPI) fell to 4.3%, slightly above expectations, and the Retail Price Index excluding mortgage interest payments (RPIX) eased to 3.3%.
On a positive note, food CPI inflation continued to decline, rising by 4% year-on-year, the slowest since November 2021, which subtracted 0.11 percentage points from the headline rate. Clothing and footwear inflation also decreased due to smaller price increases, contributing -0.06 percentage points to the headline. Core goods inflation dropped to 1.5% from 1.9%. However, this was offset by a rise in motor fuel inflation, likely to continue if oil prices rise. Services inflation remained higher than expected, declining only slightly to 6.0%, mainly due to housing services and communication CPI inflation.
This data will concern the MPC, especially given the persistence of CPI in the US. However, we believe it's insufficient to sway the MPC from a June rate cut. We expect CPI to return to the 2% target in April, aided by the adjustment in energy regulator Ofgem's price cap. The headline rate may temporarily exceed the target later in the year but is forecasted to stabilise within the 2% to 2.5% range, supported by declining services inflation. Downside risks to the Bank of England's CPI inflation forecasts for next year are also noted.
Governor Andrew Bailey echoed previous comments, suggesting that inflation dynamics differ between Europe and the US. We still anticipate a June rate cut, followed by two more cuts in September and November. However, if inflation and wage growth continue to surpass expectations, the first cut may be delayed until August.
Market reaction was subdued, with the pound slightly strengthening against the dollar and edging away from recent lows against the euro.