18/12/2023
The European Central Bank (ECB) has followed in the footsteps of the Bank of England (BoE) and the US Federal Reserve, keeping interest rates on hold at 4.0% for its final meeting of 2023.
It comes after ten consecutive hikes that began in July 2022, and as consumer prices in the eurozone only rose by 2.4% in the year to November. Core inflation also went down.
As inflation has fallen faster than expected, investors have now increased their bets for ECB rate cuts in 2024, currently pricing in almost 150 basis points of rate cuts next year.
“The risk is now earlier and larger cuts, and an ECB more capable of decoupling from the Fed,” said Mark Wall, an ECB watcher with Deutsche Bank.
Earlier today, Threadneedle Street left UK interest rates on hold at a 15-year high of 5.25%, with the monetary policy committee (MPC) voting by a majority of six to three.
Money markets are now predicting that Threadneedle Street will reduce interest rates by five quarter-point cuts next year, down from the current levels to 4%.