19/12/2016
Election 2016 postmortem: Reasons the NDC lost the 2016 election
1. THE ELECTION PETITION EFFECT.
Many were those who critiqued Nana Akuffo Addo for "wasting eight Precious months" in 2013 fighting an election petition court case that he eventually lost anyway. The unexpected benefit of this is that Ghanaians are now the most educated electorate on this planet. The technicalities of over voting, the nuances of filling out the pink sheets, the electoral process in its entirety are amongst the complex subjects of the election now well within the intellectual grasp of the average Ghanaian. Through this process the NPP came to understand what the NDC had known all the while: Elections are won at the polling station, not at the collation centre, or the EC strong room, or at the Supreme Court.
This knowledge invaluable to change how the NPP prepared for the 2016 elections and it also proved lethal in helping a now vigilant public in preventing fraud at all levels from being perpetrated in favour of the incumbent.
2. THE RISE OF THE MIDDLE CLASS.
Traditionally, all the middle class in Ghana had demanded of government was a "benign-ish" environment in which they could enjoy their privately acquired comforts.
Typically, on election days they went to vote and then drove to golf courses or omo tou joints to while away the time until polls closed.
When the results started trickling in, they switched on their armchair politics buttons and started to analyse results employing Calculus, Monte Carlo simulations and Blackschloes models among others. They analysed until they paralyzed and then when the results were announced, they analysed why their analysis was not accurate.
This year was different. Many got involved. Groups such as Professionals for Change, Hope Champs, and Loyal Ladies etc were formed and significant contributions were made towards securing victory for the NPP. Most of them worked in NPP situation rooms, collation centres and some as polling station agents. Lawyers, doctors, accountants and experts from various fields brought their corporate and executive experiences to bear.
The NDC foot soldiers and the often overtly political EC polling officials were no matches for their mental agility and intellectual prowess of this new crop of NPP polling agents. NDC had awoken the Middle Class – (sleeping giants of this nation) to their own peril.
3. CORRUPTION.
Where do I start?? Woyome, SADA, GYEEDA, Bugri Nabu, Isophoton, Bus Branding, sole sourcing, Ford Expedition etc.
No single contractor had more contracts under President Mahama than his brother- Ibrahim. In four years the President Mahama’s family has become one of the richest families in Africa. How?? They paid some of the price last night and will pay the rest later.
4. ATTA MILLS.
Why was there no investigation into the death of this noble Fante man? Suspicions have been rife about the cause of his death with the chief suspect being the one who stood to gain the most from the president's demise. The wise thing the President should have done was to conduct an independent inquiry to put to rest the matter. He did the exact opposite.
NDC won only 4 out of the 24 seats in that region. I expect the central region to ask this new government for a full inquiry and disclosure.
5. THE VOLTA EFFECT
Any man who wants peace in his marriage must first ensure that his in-laws are happy. NDC is the Bride, President Mahama is the groom but Volta is the In-Law.
On 7th December 2016, the in-laws refused to sign the marriage certificate because the groom had left the in-laws impoverished. In 2012, voter turnout in this region was 75.74% this dropped to 61.63%.
6. NON-ISSUE BASED CAMPAIGN
So I remember the following;
-Ede bee k3k3
-Ey3 Zu ey3 za
-Onaapo
-Usain bolt
-Nooooo abaa baser
-John 3:16
But I also remember
-1 district 1 factory
-1 village 1 damn
-1 district 1 million dollars
-Free senior high
-Revive NHIS
-Special Independent Prosecutor.
NPP provided hope. NDC provided slogans and "feel good feelings ".
Ghanaians chose substance over branding.
7. ANSWERING THE COMPETENCE QUESTION
Dr M Bawumia the brilliant economist was used as a benchmark to expose the incompetence of President Mahama and his economic advisors. He was the first person to tag President Mahama as incompetent.
He asked questions that today remain unanswered. He showed dexterity in presenting complex data in simple language to expose the misappropriation of state funds and the complete ineptitude of the President Mahama’s government. GDP growth had fallen from 14% in 2011 to 4.1% in 2015.
A further fall has been projected in 2016 to 3.9%. The Fiscal Balance also had deteriorated from -7.1% of GDP to -12.4% of GDP by 2014. With the macroeconomic fundamentals being weak with no remedy in sight the Ghana Cedi plummeted year after year; falling from $1:1.64 in 2011 to $1:4.32 GHS by the time Ghanaians went to the poll in December 2016.
President Mahama had no answers. His Vice President Amissah Arthur described as a seasoned economist and hand-picked to neutralise the Bawumia effect proved much of a disappointment. His critiques accused him of being "intellectually offline" most of the time and he stayed true to form. In the end, the government’s economic team lead by Vice President Amissah Arthur could not rescue the failing economy.
As the macroeconomic indicators begun to head south and the standard of living ebb, it only served to further amplify the words of Dr Bawumia: President Mahama was an incompetent man presiding over an equally clueless bunch. The stigma never washed.
8. THE CHARLOTTE OSEI PHENOMENON.
Rumors circulated that she was an ex NDC parliamentary aspirant. Pictures surfaced of her what were purported to be her NDC campaign posters and gossip filled the streets of her being "romantically involved" with the President himself - but then again how many men could resist the temptation that was Charlotte? These accusations were unpardonable.
However, it wasn't these baseless and cheap allegations that gave one cause to worry about her alleged sympathies for the NDC but it was the fact that most of her posturing on legal and operational matters of the electoral process seemed to favour the ruling party that gave the opposition and all others concerned the shivers.
For instance
A) she suggested that registered voter list in the opposition strongholds were bloated and were in need of cleansing.
B) She went to court to prevent the political parties from having copies of the pink sheets. This was needed to assist parties in verifying the results coming from the EC.
C) In what could possibly be seen as a brazen attempt to perhaps prevent the possibility of a runoff, she disqualified 12 presidential aspirants in a single swoop for "errors on their application forms" with no opportunity for them to remedy those mistakes.
The EC under her Stewardship lost almost all of its court cases against the opposition. How could her position on these issues be at such variance with that of the courts; with what the judges considered fair and equitable?
This made the opposition weary. Was she displaying the required level of neutrality expected of her or was she indeed an NDC sympathizer? She was never to be trusted again by the opposition.
Measures were therefore taken and preparations were made to prevent her, her outfit or any other their party from influencing the elections. Due to her, the opposition was constantly in a state of alert and readiness. Vigilance was the name of the game and no room was left for rigging or manipulation of any kind that will subvert the will of the people, thanks to the scare that was Charlotte.
9. DONT INSULT OUR INTELLIGENCE.
As a student of strategy, I have always admired the NDC for being a class act when it came to marshaling the grass roots support and informing the narrative on issues.
For example;
A)it is said that when the NPP accused the government of causing depreciation of the Cedi, the NDC explained to the masses that just like tomatoes and maize depreciation was seasonal and it would soon pass away. They told them that during Kuffour era if you had a dollar Kuffour only exchanged it for one cedi but now President Mahama will give you four Cedis and that he President Mahama was generous and not a thief to withhold their extra GH¢3.
B)When NPP promised 1 dam 1 district they told their supporters that it was a bad policy as the dam will breed mosquitoes.
C) In explaining why they lost Asiedu Nketia told the supporters that many people in their strongholds who used to vote for them had died over the last four years and therefore explains the low voter turnout.
NDC understood the psyche and level of understanding of their supporters and developed a system of communication that worked to a great effect whiles on the other hand NPP struggled to make sense to the masses with equal efficacy.
The masses couldn't appreciate good policy as they could physical structures. So the focus was placed on building structures for all to see while they ignored policy based governance altogether.
Wasn't the Ghanaian discerning enough to see through these vales of deceit and lies?
Although this was partly true of most third world democracies it wasn’t of the Ghanaian voter and. At the right time, they were going to not only change the tune but change the piper as well. That time was 7th December 2016.
