03/08/2026
Real Talk Series 3rd August 2026 Episode one
The Big Picture — Jan vs July 2026 - Building Material Cost
2026 started stable, then snapped. Cement that was around N9,000 in Dec 2025 to N10,000 in Jan 2026 and averaging N8,500 - N10,800 in Jan is now N9,500 - N13,000 across Nigeria, typical Lagos N10,500 with retail peaks at N12,500 - N15,000 and N11,500 - N15,000 across major markets.
Why?
Diesel N900 to N1,900 in 3 weeks, gas for cement kilns priced in dollars (60% of production cost), and mega-demand from Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway. Fortren & Co tracked +20% construction input cost in just 5 months to May 2026.
Detailed Category Breakdown - Lagos
1. CEMENT - 50kg
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Jan baseline: sold for about N7,500 late 2025, rose to N9,000 - N10,000 early 2026. March peak is already N11,500 - N15,000, a 30% rise within Q1 alone. Tracker confirms +35% vs Dec 2024.
2. BLOCKS
Lagos State now enforces higher quality to curb collapse — more cement per block = higher cost. +20% vs Dec 2024
3. AGGREGATES
Stable in tonnage terms recently: sand and granite still N50k and N60k per ton last 6 months but transport kills you in Lekki/Ajah.
4. ROOFING
Aluminium longspan 0.45-0.70mm: N1,900 - N3,100/metre, installed N7,000 - N8,500 per sqm +30% vs Dec 2024 1542048063253838567
Stone-coated: N4,800 - N7,000/sqm
5. TIMBER & FORMWORK
Marine plywood 3/4": N15k - N25k/sheet
Hardwood 2x4: N350 - N550
6. FINISHING, PLUMBING, ELECTRICAL
Tiles mid-range supplied & laid: N8,000 - N12,000/sqm, +28% 1542048063253838567
Windows 600x600: N4k - N10.5k
Electrical & Plumbing for 3-bed: Jan N1.5m-2.2m → July N1.8m-2.7m
7. LABOUR - The fastest riser
+40% since 2024 — Japa to Gulf/Europe.
Total Build Cost Today
N215,000 - N310,000 per sqm in Lagos for standard finish, up 25-40% since late 2024. A 3-bedroom bungalow: N15m - N33m excluding land.
Materials now 50-70% of total construction cost.
Impact on Land & Property -
On Land:
Lagos Govt released a new Fair Market Value Blue Book May 1, 2026 — first update since 2005-2015. Governor's Consent, stamp duty, registration now up ∼ 300%.
Land itself: Ikeja GRA now N1.5m/sqm, up from N600k/sqm in Jan 2024, Ikoyi Cooper Road N800k/sqm (Jan 2024) to N3.5m/sqm today.
Ibeju-Lekki/Epe corridor: N250k - N750k/sqm, but fastest growth +6.1% in July — best value entry.
On Property Prices:
Lagos property +17% in naira
Forecast 2026: 12-18% for mainstream Lagos/Abuja, 18-25% for high-demand corridors
Reason: high replacement cost because land, building materials, imported fittings, diesel, security, and developer finance all became more expensive.
Lekki/Ajah 3-bed: N72m - N138m (+4.8% MoM), Ibeju-Lekki/Epe 3-bed: N58m - N105m (+6.1%)
“Developers are being forced to increase prices, and ultimately, it is the end user who bears the burden.”
1. Disinflation ≠ Deflation: Inflation easing doesn't mean prices drop. Cement stayed at record highs.
2. Delay is Expensive: Every quarter at least one material jumps double digits. Landlords will pass the new 300% perfection cost to rent.
3. Land is the Hedge: If you can't finish building now, lock the land. Especially Epe/Ibeju — the replacement cost logic means land under N1m/sqm there is still undervalued.
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